Barry Rabe: Can We Price Carbon?

Barry Rabe discusses his book Can We Price Carbon? Moderated by John Milewski. October, 2018.

Transcript:

GOOD MORNING EVERYBODY.

GOOD MORNING EVERYONE.

GREAT TO SEE YOU ALL HERE.

THIS IS A SERIOUS PACKED HOUSE,

WHICH I THINK IS APPROPRIATE

GIVEN THE AMAZING SPEAKERS WE

HAVE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THE

TOPIC AT HAND.

I AM MICHAEL BARR, DEAN OF THE

GERALD FORD SCHOOL AND WE ARE

GATHERED TO CELEBRATE AND LEARN

FROM THE LATEST BOOK OF OUR FORD

COLLEAGUE AND FRIEND, PROFESSOR

BARRY RABE.

THE CENTER OF POLITICAL POLICY

AT CLOSE-UP AT THE FORD SCHOOL

AND CLOSE-UP IS A KEY SPONSOR OF

TODAY'S EVENT AND HOLDS

APPOINTMENTS IN THE DEPARTMENT

OF ENVIRONMENT AND DEPARTMENT OF

POLITICAL SCIENCE AND THE SCHOOL

FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AND

SUSTAINABILITY.

BARRY RECENTLY A PUBLIC POLICY

SCHOLAR AND SERVE SAYS -- SERVES

AT THE BROOKING INSTITUTE.

AND HOLDS THE 2017 MARTHA

DERTHICK AWARD.

BARRY CO-CHAIRS THE WATER

COMMITTEE AND ENVIRONMENTAL

PROTECTION AGENCY FROM 2013-2017

AND SERVED ON THE RECENT

ACADEMIC PANELS, INCLUDING

COMMERCE OF INTERIOR AND

OKLAHOMA COMMISSION.

BARRY'S LATEST BOOK, "CAN WE

PRICE CARBON."

PUBLISHED EARLIER IN YEAR MIT

PRESS DRAWING FROM NORTH AMERICA

AND EUROPEAN AND ASIA CASE

STUDIES, HARD TO IMAGINE A MORE

IMPORTANT QUESTION, AND BARRY

APPROACHES IF CARBON PRICES

WHETHER ADOPTED AND COULD MANAGE

OVER SHIFTS OVER TIME.

REVIEWERS HAVE CALLED THE BOOK,

QUOTE, TRIUMPH AND THAT THE BOOK

IS IS MODEL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL

POLICY AROUND THE WORLD.

BARRY IS HELD HIGH BY HIS FORD

COLLEAGUES, BARRY ON BEHALF OF

THE FACULTY, CONGRATULATIONS ON

THE PUBLICATION OF YOUR LATEST

BOOK.

AND ON THE IMPACT IT IS ALREADY

HAVING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE

ON PUBLIC POLICY.

[APPLAUSE]

TO HOST TODAY'S CONVERSATION, WE

INVITED JOHN MALESKI THAT WORKED

WITH BARRY AT FORD CENTER.

AND JOHN IS MANAGING EDITOR FOR

WILSON CENTER NOW, HE HAS A LONG

DISTINGUISHED BACKGROUND IN

JOURNALISM, PARTICULARLY

BROADCAST JOURNALISM, INCLUDING

HOST ON C-SPAN.

JOHN THANK YOU FOR THE EVENT AND

THE TRAINING YOU WILL BE DOING

LATER TODAY WITH OUR FACULTY.

[APPLAUSE]

SO WE HAVE CLOSE-UP

POST-DOCTORAL CANDIDATE SARAH

MILLS TO SIFT THROUGH THE

QUESTIONS IN THE AUDIENCE, AND

CLAIRE WILL PLAY THE ROLE OF TWO

STUDENTS IN THIS SHOW.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WATCHING

ONLINE, YOU CAN ALSO SEND IN

YOUR QUESTIONS, PLEASE TWEET

YOUR QUESTIONS USING THE #POLICY

TALKS.

AND THE BOOK WILL SET UP IN THE

HALL AFTER THE TALK FOR PURCHASE

AND MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR

SIGNING.

AND WITH THAT I TURN IT OVER TO

BARRY AND JOHN FOR A TERRIFIC

CONVERSATION.

PLEASE JOIN ME IN THANKING THEM

AGAIN.

[APPLAUSE]

&gt;&gt; GOOD MORNING EVERYONE, HOW

ARE YOU?

I SEE LOTS OF REMNANTS OF

SANDWICHES WHAT I DON'T SEE IS

ENOUGH BOOKS.

YOU FORGOT TO PICK THOSE UP OUT

IN THE LOBBY AS WELL.

LET ME BEGIN BY A COUPLE OF

QUICK THINGS, SOME BUSINESS.

ONE I HAD THE PLEASURE OF

WORKING WITH BARRY AT THE

WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL

CENTER FOR SCHOLARS.

IT'S A TERRIFIC PLACE TO WORK,

SIMILAR TO WHAT YOU EXPERIENCE

HERE.

OUR OLD BOSS LEE HAMILTON

DESCRIBED AS A UNIVERSITY

WITHOUT STUDENTS OR FACULTY

MEETINGS, SO YOU WILL LOVE IT.

WHAT HE MEANT THE TYPE OF EVENT

YOU ARE TAKING PART IN TODAY,

AND OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLORE A

THOUGHT LEADER AND RELEVANT

ISSUES.

AND IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN

SUCH THINGS, CLEARLY YOUR

PRESENCE SHOWS YOU ARE, AND KID

IN A CANDY STORE AND OUT IN THE

WORLD THESE THINGS NOT IN YOUR

SCHEDULE AS NOW AND HOPE YOU

ENJOY IT WHILE IN THE COMMUNITY

YOU ARE IN.

AND BARRY IS A PLEASURE TO WORK

AND NOT JUST A BRILLIANT MIND

BUT ON A PERSONAL LEVEL.

THOSE OF YOU KNOW BARRY A GREAT

GUY, AND HERE TO TALK ABOUT HIS

BOOK, "CAN WE PRICE CARBON."

AND IT TAKES AN AUTHOR TO WRITE

A VILLAGE AND YOU WANT TO THANK

FOLKS.

&gt;&gt; I DO, AND THANK YOU JOHN.

AND FIRST THANK YOU MICHAEL FOR

THE KIND INTRODUCTION.

AND THANK MEMBERS OF FORD SCHOOL

AND CLOSE-UP STAFF THAT WORKED

AT GREAT EVENT TO PUT THIS EVENT

AND THEY DO THINGS WELL, AND

GREATLY GRATEFUL TO THEM.

AND THANK YOU, JOHN FOR BEING

HERE AND A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY

TO CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION.

AND FOR ALL OF YOU COMING, AND

PARTICULARLY THOSE OF YOU

STANDING AND HOPE IT'S OFF SET

BY THE CONVERSATION AND

AVAILABILITY OF FOOD AND DRINK.

AND I KNOW WE ARE WEBCASTING AND

I WANT TO SAY, I HAVE BEEN

REALLY TOUCHED BY THE NUMBER OF

FORMER STUDENTS AND TRULY

CO-AUTHORS THAT REACHED OUT TO

IN LAST 24 HOURS AND LOOKING AT

THE CAMERA, AND NOT KNOWING WHO

I AM LOOKING AT BUT HEARTENED OF

THE FORMER STUDENTS AND

DELIGHTED TO BE JOINED BY

CURRENT STUDENTS.

&gt;&gt; THANKS BARRY, ALONG WITH MY

WORK IN TELEVISION, I TEACH AT

PENN STATE, SORRY.

AND RELATE TO THIS AUDIENCE, MY

FATHER-IN-LAW IS A GRADUATE OF

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AND MY

BROTHER-IN-LAW IS A FORMER

CAPTAIN OF YOUR TENNIS TEAM.

BEFORE I ASK BARRY, HOW MANY OF

YOU HAVE WRITTEN A BOOK, AND IN

A UNIVERSITY SETTING THAT IS

HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

AND EVEN HERE, HOW MANY OF YOU

ASPIRE TO WRITE A BOOK?

ME TOO, IN MY 30 PLUS YEARS AS A

JOURNALIST BROADCAST AND I HAVE

INTERVIEWED DOZEN OF AUTHORS AND

INTERESTED IN THE STORY BEHIND

THE STORY, AND LOOKING FOR SHORT

CUTS THAT DON'T EXIST.

THE BOTTOM LINE PEOPLE HAVE TO

SIT DOWN AND WRITE.

AND BARRY BEFORE THE SUBJECT

MATTER, I WOULD LIKE TO ASK

ABOUT THE PROCESS AND WHAT TO

CHOOSE THIS TOPIC.

I INTERVIEWED A MAN LAST WEEK

THAT AUTHORED A BOOK CHINA TO

CHI, AND TOOK THREE YEARS.

AND SOME TAKE MONTHS.

&gt;&gt; I KNOW EXACTLY WHEN I DECIDED

TO BEGIN THIS BOOK.

LATE IN THE EVENING ON JUNE 26,

AND NO, I DON'T KEEP CLOSED

CALENDARS.

&gt;&gt; THERE WILL BE A FULL

INVESTIGATION.

&gt;&gt; AND PRIOR TO THAT POINT,

MID-2009, I HAD FINISHED A BOOK

LOOKING AT THE POLITICS OF

CLIMATE CHANGE AND I WAS TRYING

TO ASK, WHY AN ISSUE AS WE TALK

ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING OR GLOBAL

CLIMATE CHANGE PROVING SO

DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH AT THE

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL.

AND IN THE U.S., FOR EXAMPLE

WERE ENGAGING THE ISSUE AND

PLAYING A ROLE.

AND FROM THAT MOVED ON FROM

UNIVERSITY MILLER CENTER, AND

PUTTING ON A CONFERENCE, AND

TRANSITION FROM THE 2008

ELECTION.

AND THE INAUGURATION OF

PRESIDENT OBAMA IN EARLY 2009.

WITH A REPORT OF BRINGING

TOGETHER TEAMS ACROSS

DISCIPLINES AND ASKING WHAT IS

THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE POLICY IN

THE U.S. AND INTERNATIONALLY.

AND IT WAS A VERY HEARTY ROBUST

PERIOD AND THE ANTICIPATION WAS

CERTAINLY NOT IN THE U.S., THAT

WE WERE MARCHING TOWARDS THE

ADOPTION OF FEDERAL STRATEGIES

IN THE U.S. AND INTERNATIONALLY

TO TRY TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE BY REDUCING

GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS.

IT WAS THE MOMENT AFTER AN

ELECTION, DEFEATED OPPONENT,

SENATOR MCCAIN AND HAD THE SAME

LEGISLATION, CARBON PRICING.

AND DEMOCRATS NUMBERS WERE

OVERWHELMING AND STILL A

BIPARTISAN SENSE OF

RESPONSIBILITY ON THE ISSUE.

AND I GOT TO JUNE 26, AND

WATCHED ON CSPAN BY THE WAY, A

NETWORK DEAR TO YOUR HEART AND

MINE AS WELL.

AND WATCHED 7.5 HOUR FLORIDA

DEBATE TO PASS THE LEGISLATION

THAT WAS PASSED IN UNITED STATES

CONGRESS.

WHICH PASSED, THE WAXMAN

LEGISLATION.

AND I WATCHEDED AND TRACKING THE

TRENDS AND THE ISSUES AND

UNDERLINE PRESUMPTION THAT THIS

WAS INEVITABLE BECAUSE PART OF

THE IDEA THAT CARBON PRICE WAS

SO COMPELLING.

WHETHER A CARBON TAX OR CAP AND

TRADE OR HYBRID, AND THE POLICY

OF A DIVERSE IDEA ACROSS

IDEOLOGICAL SPECTRUM, NOT JUST

IN THE U.S. SEEMED TO BE

INEVITABLY.

I HAD MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AND

THE ABILITY OF CONGRESS AT THAT

TIME TO ADOPT LEGISLATION.

BUT I WATCHED THE LEGISLATION

AND THE DEBATE.

I WATCHED LEGISLATOR AFTER

LEGISLATOR EXTRACT SOME FAVOR

FROM THE MAJORITY LEADERSHIP

FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BEFORE

GRANTING THEIR VOTE.

AND FINALLY THE BILL PASSED BUT

ONLY BY SEVEN VOTES.

AND NEEDED CROSS-OVER

REPUBLICANS TO PUT OVER THAT

NEAR MAJORITY.

BUT CLEARLY THIS WAS LEGISLATION

IN TROUBLE.

NOT ONLY BECAUSE THE SENATE

STOOD BEFORE BUT CLEARLY NOT A

BROADER BUY AND SUPPORT OF THIS

IDEA OF PUTTING PRICE ON CARBON

EMISSIONS AND ALLOWING MARKETS

TRYING TO RESPOND.

AND WITH THAT I ACTUALLY BEGAN A

PROJECT, RATHER QUIET, A

STEALTHY KIND OF PROJECT THAT

LOOKED AT EACH AND EVERY STATE

AND CANADIAN PROVIDENCE AND

LOOKED AT COUNTRIES AROUND THE

WORLD, INCLUDING FROM LATIN

AMERICA AND EUROPE AND ASIA.

AND TRACKING AND I TRIED TO LOOK

AT THE MOMENT THAT THE PROTOCOL

WAS NEGOTIATED IN 1997 WITH THIS

BLIP IN 2009 WHERE IT LOOKED

LIKE U.S. WAS GOING TO MAKE REAL

CLIMATE HISTORY AND DID NOT AND

COMPLETE IN THE BOOK.

ON ONE LEVEL A LONG PROJECT.

STILL A WORK IN PROGRESS.

&gt;&gt; RIGHT, AND I WANT TO ASK

DEFINITIONS BEFORE WE DIG DEEPER

IN THE EXAMPLES, AND YOU

MENTIONED CAP AND TRADE AND ONE

THING THAT PEOPLE HAVE HEARD OF.

AND CARBON PRICING IS MORE OF A

BIGGER UMBRELLA TERM AND CAP AND

TRADE IS ONE ITERATION, IS THAT

CORRECT?

&gt;&gt; THAT IS CORRECT.

I FOCUS PRINCIPALLY ON TWO TOOLS

AND ONE CARBON EMISSION OF GAS

AND COAL AND PRICE THOSE

ACCORDINGLY THROUGH A TAX, CLOSE

TO POINT OF CONSUMPTION.

THE CAP-AND-TRADE ISSUE MAY BE

MORE FAMILIAR.

IT PUTS AN OVERALL CAP AND HENCE

THE RESTRICTION, CAP AND TRADE,

ON THE AMOUNT OF EMISSIONS

ALLOWED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME

AND DOES INDEED ALLOW FOR TRADE.

WHAT IS MOST FAMILIAR HERE IS

THE U.S. EXPERIENCE THROUGH THE

SO02 IS A MODEL AND WILL MODELS

AS WELL.

&gt;&gt; IF CAP AND TRADE HAS MOST

MODEL AND WHAT IS ANOTHER

PROMINENT?

&gt;&gt; FROM THE CARBON TAX FIVE

CASES IN THE EARLY 1990S.

AND I DECIDED IN THE BOOK TO

DELAY THE BOOK A BIT, THIS IS AN

AMENDMENT TO YOUR FIRST

QUESTION.

TO REALLY LOOK AT OTHER KINDS OF

WAYS A PRICE MIGHT BE ADOPTED.

GASOLINE EXCISE TAXES ARE

FAMILIAR TO ALL OF US, THEY HAVE

SIGNIFICANT LIMITATIONS AND TO

SOME EXTENT THEY DO THE SAME

THING.

AND I SPENT A LOT OF TIME

LOOKING AT NOT THE POINT OF

TAXING CONSUMPTION BUT WHERE YOU

IMPOSE A TAX AT THE POINT OF

EXTRACTION.

AND WHERE THE MINERALS ARE

REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE OF THE

EARTH.

&gt;&gt; EXTRACTION TAXES.

&gt;&gt; EXTRACTION TAXES OR MIGHT

CALL MINING TAXES AND LOOK AT

THE ISSUES THAT ARE IN PLAY,

DOMESTICALLY AND

INTERNATIONALLY.

&gt;&gt; YOU MENTIONED A GASOLINE TAX,

AND I DON'T KNOW IF I TOLD YOU

THIS STORY BEFORE, TOM FREEDMAN,

THE NEW YORK TIMES JOURNALIST

WAS SPEAKING AND USED THE PHRASE

THAT IT'S BROKEN.

WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT,

EVERYONE SAYS THAT.

AND HE WAS STUMPED FOR A SECOND

BECAUSE HE ADMITTED TO BE ON

AUTO PILOT.

AND WHEN HE RECOVERED SAID, LET

ME GIVE YOU EXAMPLE, EVERY

ECONOMIST ON THE GLOBE SAYS THAT

A GASOLINE TAX MAKES SENSE AND

YET CAN'T BE BROUGHT UP AS A

POLITICAL DISCUSSION IN

WASHINGTON BECAUSE IT'S

RADIOACTIVE, TWO MEMBERS OF

CONGRESS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE

AISLE.

I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE

BARRIERS AND THE POLITICAL

VIABILITY OF CARBON PRICING IN

ANY ITERATION, HOW DIFFICULT OF

A LIFT IS IT?

&gt;&gt; CERTAINLY IN THE UNITED

STATES ANY TAX IS DIFFICULT AT

ANY TIME TO CREATE OR INCREASE.

THE GASOLINE TAX IS AN

INTERESTING ONE TO PONDER AND

THINK ABOUT EVEN HISTORICALLY.

WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE CLIMATE

LEGACY OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY

SYSTEM AND IN THE 50s THERE WAS

A BROAD COALITION OF SUPPORT

POST-WORLD WOR TWA TO CREATE

SOMETHING LIKE THAT THE U.S.

HIGHWAY SYSTEM.

THE CONTINUAL LOG JAM HOW DO YOU

PROVIDE THAT BENEFIT WITHOUT

IMPOSING SOME COST.

AND THE GENIUS OF EISENHOWER

STRATEGY DURING HIS PRESIDENCY

WAS TO GO BACK TO AN EARLIER

STATE EXCISE TAX PHASED OUT AND

IMPOSE THAT TAX.

BUT THE POLITICS WERE DIFFICULT

AND CHALLENGING ON THAT FRONT

EVEN BEFORE WE GET TO SUBSEQUENT

ITERATIONS OF THE TAX.

THAT IN A SMALL WAY IS A WAY TO

THINK ABOUT THE CHALLENGE OF

IMPOSING CARBON PRICE.

WHEN IN EFFECT WE ARE ASK YOUING

TO TAKE A COMMODITY PRODUCED IN

THE UNITED STATES, IN AT LEAST

HAS A BASE OF SENATORS AND

REPRESENTATIVES IN HOUSE THAT

REPRESENT SOME AMOUNT OF ENERGY

PRODUCTION AND RELEVANT JOBS AND

ISSUES THAT IS QUITE VAST AND

SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR WHICH THERE IS NEVER A

SERIOUS EFFORT TO SAY THAT IS

ILLEGAL PRODUCT OR SHUT DOWN

ENTIRELY.

THEN TO SAY TO THE CONSUMERS OF

THAT PRODUCT WE WANT YOU TO

BEGIN TO PAY MORE.

HOW MANY PRICES AND HOW MANY

COMMODITIES IN THE U.S. IS IT

EASIER TO FIND OUT THE PRICE OF

THAN A GALLON OF GASOLINE?

I CAN GO SEVERAL BLOCKS FROM MY

HOME IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS AND

FIND OUT WHETHER I WANT TO KNOW

OR NOT WHAT THAT PRICE IS.

AND SIMILARLY WE ARE VERY

SENSITIVE TO A RANGE OF

STRATEGIES.

AND WHAT CARBON TAX IS DOING AND

LET US TAKE THIS COMMODITY THAT

IS FAMILIAR
AND ADD TO THE PRICE

THAT YOU ARE GOING TO SEE EVERY

TIME YOU PAY THAT BILL OR USE

THE COMMODITY.

WITH THEN THE HOPE, AN

EXPECTATION THAT IN SOME WAY

THAT CONTRIBUTES TO AN

ENVIRONMENT OR SOCIETAL BENEFIT

THAT MAY NOT BE EXPERIENCED IN

THE NEAR TERM AND MAYBE HARD TO

MEASURE.

SO THE U.S. HAS REDUCED ITS

GREENHOUSE FOOTPRINT IN THE LAST

IT'S NOT CLEAR THAT MOST

AMERICANS ARE AWARE OF THAT.

IT'S NOT CLEAR WHAT THE CLIMATE

BENEFIT OF THAT ACTUALLY IS IN

MEASURABLE TERMS.

&gt;&gt; IS IT CLEAR THERE IS A

BENEFIT, IT'S JUST NOT THE EXACT

MAGNITUDE OF THE BENEFIT?

&gt;&gt; WE ARE ENTERING INTO

UNCERTAIN TERRAIN BECAUSE OF THE

GREENHOUSE GASES THAT DEFIED

STRATEGIES SO LONG AND TO

CONTINUED RELEASE PAYS SOME

BENEFIT.

BUT TO COMPARE TO THE COST OF

ADDING 50 CENTS TO A GALLON OF

GAS IS A TRADE OFF.

&gt;&gt; WHAT IS THE CURRENT PRICE OF

GASOLINE?

I'M ONE OF THOSE AMERICANS AND I

HAVE TO BUY IT NO MATTER THE

PRICE AND INSERT CREDIT CARD.

WHAT UNDER $3?

&gt;&gt; 2.80.

&gt;&gt; HOW MANY OF YOU PAY AN EXTRA

DOLLAR FOR THE GASOLINE?

IN THE ABSTRACT THE VAST

MAJORITY ARE WILLING TO PAY IT

BUT WHEN PUSH COMES TO SHOVE AND

YOU HAVE AN EXAMPLE ON CAMPUS TO

REDUCE THE CARBON FOOTPRINT AND

TELL US HOW THAT PLAYED OUT.

&gt;&gt; YES AND FOR EXAMPLE, IF THIS

IS THE REPRESENTATIVE IN THIS

ROOM, SARAH IS LAUGHING WE NEVER

HAVE SEEN THIS.

&gt;&gt; AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION.

&gt;&gt; YES, AND THE CASE YOU ARE

REFERRING TO IS THE QUESTION OF

HOW OUR GREAT UNIVERSITIES

INCLUDING THIS ONE, DEAL WITH

THE ISSUE OF GREENHOUSE GAS

REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE?

AT ONE LEVEL THE UNIVERSITY HAS

BEEN A GREAT LEADER FOR SOME

TIME HAVING DEVELOPED ACTION

PLANS AND STRATEGIES TO TRY TO

REDUCE ITS CARBON FOOTPRINT, FOR

A NUMBER OF DECADES AND

LAUDABLE.

AND FOR A CAMPUS AS BIG AS WE

ARE AND MASS TRANSIT AND THE

LIKE, IT'S QUITE LAUDABLE.

AND BEFORE JOHN I LEFT TO JOIN

COLLEAGUES AND THE LATEST PANEL

AND IT WAS A GREAT COMMITTEE.

AND MY COMMITTEE MEMBERS ARE

HERE TODAY.

AND IT WAS FASCINATES BECAUSE WE

WERE ABLE TO LOOK UNDER THE HOOD

OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN.

IT'S NOT A WORLD SUPER POWER IN

GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS.

BUT IT'S NOT TRIVIAL WHEN YOU

LOOK AT THE CAMPUS AND HOSPITAL

AND PROPERTIES, IT'S NOT A

TRIVIAL PLAYER.

GIVEN THE DEEP, DEEP CONCERN ON

THIS CAMPUS, ONE WOULD THINK

THAT THE UNIVERSITY WOULD BE A

LEADER, IN SOME RESPECTS WE HAVE

BEEN THAT.

AND THEN THINK OF HOW A GREAT

COMMUNITY OF OURS CAN REDUCE

THAT FURTHER.

AND WE HAVE LOOKED AT OPTIONS

AND PUT LEED PLATINUM IN THE

BUILDINGS, AND WE COULD BAN

DRIVING ON CENTRAL CAMPUS.

OTHER MEASURES, WE COULD BUY OR

TRADE OFF SOLAR PURCHASES OR

WIND PURCHASES ON AND OFF

CAMPUS.

ALL OF WHICH MIGHT HELP BEND THE

CURVE.

AND IF THE ECONOMICS ARE RIGHT

AND SAY AS A POLITICAL ECONOMIST

AND MUCH REDUCED PER USE THAN

USING A PRICING MECHANISM.

AND WE GOT TO A POINT WITH A

FORMER STUDENT FROM COLLEGE OF

ENGINEERING, AND WAIT A SECOND

WHY DO WE PUT A PRICE ON

EMISSIONS AND WHY DON'T WE DO A

CARBON TAX.

AND WE TALKED ABOUT THIS CLASS,

THIS IS NOT A SET UP BY A

FACULTY MEMBER.

AND IT WAS INTERESTING, DOUG WHO

IS HERE TODAY TALKED FROM A DEAN

PERSPECTIVE AND ENERGY BILLS

THAT COLLEGES RECEIVE ON A

REGULAR BASIS.

WE TALKED ABOUT TECHNICAL

FEASIBILITY AND THEN CONCERNS

EMERGED.

FROM THE COLLEGE OF PHYSICAL

SCIENCES.

WOULD A TAX ON CARBON AT THE

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN BE A NET

BENEFIT BECAUSE OF THEIR OFFICE

IS SMALL BUT BIGGER BURDEN TO

THOSE WITH LARGER SPACE.

AND WOULD THIS IMPOSE ON

STUDENTS THAT WANT TO TRAVEL AND

HAVE TO USE FOSSIL FUELS THAT

HAVE TO COMPLETE THAT TRAVEL.

AND WOULD IT PLACE UNDUE BURDEN

ON THE PROGRAM THAT IS IS

SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH AND OUTREACH.

NOW I LEFT CAMPUS BEFORE THAT

PROJECT COMPLETED.

THERE IS A PARAGRAPH IN THE LAST

REPORT OF THE DESIRABILITY TO

STUDY THIS FURTHER.

I HAVE BEEN BACK A FEW YEARS AND

IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET BUT IT

DOES RAISE INTERESTING

QUESTIONS.

I DON'T HEAR MUCH DEBATE THAT

CHALLENGES THE FUNDAMENTAL TE

TENETS ON THIS CAMPUS AND WHEN

YOU LOOK AT CARBON PRICING THAT

IN THE U.S.

AND I SEE THIS AS A CHALLENGE.

JOHN, YOU ARE FROM PENN STATE

BUT YOU HAVE GREEN BLOOD.

WE TALK ABOUT OURSELVES AS

LEADERS AND WE HAVE DONE TOWER

TIME THAT IS TRULY INSIDE FOR

MICHIGAN.

AND I THINK IT'S INTERESTING TO

THINK ABOUT WHAT AN INTEGRATIVE,

AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY WOULD BE AND

A GREAT PLACE TO TEST THIS

CARBON TAX WOULD BE ON A

UNIVERSITY.

&gt;&gt; AND YOU DESCRIBE WHY IT'S SO

DIFFICULT TO MAKE LONG-TERM

CHANGE.

WHEN YOU STARTED CONNECTING THE

DOTS AS YOU DID HERE, ALL OF

THIS COMPLEXITY AND UNINTENDED

CONSEQUENCES REVEALED.

IT'S THE OLD THING THAT

EVERYBODY WANTS TO VOTE OUT THE

BUMS IN CONGRESS BUT KEEP THEIR

OWN MEMBER AND SOMEONE ELSE'S

DISTRICT TO VOTE IN.

AND THAT TYPE OF ACTIVITY AMONG

OF THE POPULOUS CIVIC ACTORS.

AND ADDING TO THAT, WE ARE NOT

WIRED TO LONG-TERM PLANNING AS

HUMAN BEINGS.

EVERYTHING IS LUNCH, ABOUT AS

FAR AHEAD WE ARE THINKING.

THERE IS SO MUCH, HAVE YOU SEEN

ANYTHING IN YOUR RESEARCH THAT

IS ABLE TO CRACK THIS CODE?

&gt;&gt; THE LONG-TERM PLANNING PIECE

IS REALLY CHALLENGING.

CERTAINLY THERE IS THIS INITIAL

CHALLENGE OF WHETHER OR NOT YOU

CAN GAIN POLITICAL SUPPORT TO

PUSH THROUGH A LEGISLATURE OR

WHATEVER THE DEMOCRATIC BODY

ISSON AGREEMENT TO START THE

POLICY.

BUT THIS LONGER-TERM ISSUE IS

THE POLICY WELL DESIGNED, IS IT

MANAGED EFFECTIVELY.

ALL OF THESE TYPES OF ISSUES.

AND IT'S ONE OF THE GREATEST

LIFTS AND CHALLENGES IN AMERICAN

POLITICS TO DO THAT.

I RAISED THE QUESTION AT THE

BEGINNING OF THE TERM, HOW MANY

TIMES IN YOUR LIVES HAVE BEEN

ASKED BY A POLITICAL LEADER TO

MAKE A SACRIFICE FOR THE BROADER

GOOD WITH THE IDEA THAT THE

BENEFITS OF LONG TERM.

AND NOT A GREAT EXAMPLE.

I AM HARD PRESSED TO ANSWER THAT

QUESTION.

INTERNATIONALLY STUDENTS FROM

OUTSIDE OF THE U.S. WRESTLE WITH

THAT QUESTION AS WELL.

IT'S A CLIMATE ISSUE BUT A

BROADER PUBLIC POLICY ISSUE AS

WELL.

AND EXAMPLES OF HOW THIS CAN BE

WELL DONE.

ONE OF THE CHALLENGES IS THE

CASES I HAVE TO WORK WITH, CASES

BETWEEN 1997 AND 2015.

WHERE YOU HAVE BEEN ABLE TO

CREATE A COALITION TO SUPPORT

THE CARBON PRICE THROUGH

POLITICAL MEANS.

AND ACTUALLY LAUNCH AND ADOPT

THE POLICY AND PUT IT IN PLACE.

INCLUDING ALL THE MANAGEMENT

PROVISIONS AND TRANSPARENCY AND

EVERYTHING ELSE.

AND MAINTAIN THAT POLICY THROUGH

INEVITABLE CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT.

FROM THE PRESIDENT AND PREMIER

THAT ADVOCATEED AND NO LONGER IN

POWER.

AND I FOUND EVERY SHRINKING

NUMBER OF CASES NOT JUST IN

NORTH AMERICA BUT A FEW.

AND I THINK THAT THE CASES IN

NORWAY ARE INTRIGUING, A MAJOR

PRODUCER OF GAS.

AND NOT LONG AFTER THE OFF-SHORE

GASES AND THEY APPLIED THEIR OWN

CARBON DIOXIDE TAX PRIOR TO 1991

EXPRESSLY TO ALL.

AND THE CASE IN BRITISH

COLUMBIA, ADOPTED A TAX IN 2011

THAT IS A REALLY INTRIGUING

MODEL.

EVEN IN THE AMERICAN NORTHEAST,

THE NINE OUT OF 11 STATES THAT

FORMED THE INITIAL GREENHOUSE

GAS EMISSION AND ADOPTED AND

SUSTAINED FOR TIME ABOUT A

DECADE.

IS AN INTERESTING MODEL, IF ONE

WANTS TO ESTABLISH A

CAP-AND-TRADE SYSTEM.

THERE IS OTHER EXAMPLES THAT

COME IN PLAY.

AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL AND

THAT PUTS US IN AN INTERESTING

POSITION.

IT'S NOT JUST THEORY, IT'S NOT

JUST PUTTING UP AN EQUATION.

SAYING THIS IS HOW THE WORLD

WOULD WORK IF WE HOLD POLITICS

OFF TO THE CORNER.

BUT REAL WORLD EXPERIENCES TO

LOOK AT.

&gt;&gt; HAVE ADVOCATES DONE THE

ACTIVITY TO PROMOTE THE

BENEFITS.

TO SEE THE ENVIRONMENT AND

EXECUTE PUBLIC POLICY CHANGES

THAT AFFECT THE WAY THAT WE LIVE

DAILY?

&gt;&gt; I DON'T WANT TO SUGGEST THAT

THE SECRET SAUCE, WINK, WINK IS

THINK ABOUT THE BENEFITS AND

SELL TO CONSTITUENTS.

BUT IT'S NOT A TRIVIAL FACTOR OR

ISSUE AND LARGELY MISSING IN THE

DISCUSSION.

I AGREE THAT MY AGREEMENT IN THE

POLITICAL SCIENCE WAS LARGELY

MISSING FOR A LONG TIME.

AND SUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE

IDEA ITSELF WOULD BE SO

COMPELLING THAT IT WOULD BRING

PEOPLE TOGETHER.

AND PEOPLE WANT TO ASK, IF YOU

ARE ASKING ME FOR A SACRIFICE

THROUGH INCREASED COMMODITY

PRICE IN ENERGY, NOT ONLY WHAT

THAT WILL DO TO A POINT BUT HOW

THAT REVENUE IS USED.

AND FEW THINGS THAT EMERGE

DRAWING FROM SMALL CASES, AND IF

ONE WANTS TO SUPPORT THAT THE

REVENUE BUILDING REVIEWS IT.

AND FIND THAT AN INCREASE IN

GENERAL BUDGET IS A SUPPORT

LOSER.

ANY EFFORT TO PUT IN DEFICIT

REDUCTION, IS TRUE NONSTARTER

AND SOBERING IN A NUMBER OF WAYS

TO DRIVE DOWN THE TAX ACROSS THE

BOARD.

THE TWO AREAS THAT DO SEEM TO

TRIGGER INTEREST BOTH IN EXPRESS

AND EMPIRICAL CASES AROUND THE

WORLD BUT SURVEY DATA WE HAVE

SEEN.

SOME WAY TO RETURN THE MONEY TO

THE CITIZENRY.

EITHER THROUGH DOLLAR-TO-DOLLAR

TAX REDUCTIONS, KNOWN AS REVENUE

NEUTRALITY.

AND ACROSS CONGRESS AND --

&gt;&gt; TUITION BREAKS.

&gt;&gt; THERE IS AN INTERESTING

PARALLEL AND PENN STATE DID

DISCUSS THAT, TALK ABOUT THAT

LATER.

AND THE OTHER BEING ENERGY

TRANSITION.

PAYING FOR SOME COST TO

TRANSITION TO WIND OR SOLAR OR

MORE RENEWABLES.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE DURABLE

CARBON POLICY STRATEGIES WE HAVE

SEEN, THEY WORKED HARD AT THE

GET-GO TO COME TO CONSENSUS WHAT

THE REVENUE STREAM WOULD BE AND

TRANSPARENT ABOUT IT.

AND ALONGSIDE THE COST INCREASE

WHICH THEY ACKNOWLEDGED AND

CLEAR, AND NOT ONLY SAYING WE

WILL PROVIDE THIS BENEFIT BUT

MEASURING THAT AND MAKING THAT

READILY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER THAT

WOULD BE PROVIDED.

THIS IS NOT AGAIN THE ONLY

COMPONENT OF THIS BUT ONE PART

MISSING IN A LOT OF DISCUSSION.

&gt;&gt; THE STORY OF TOBACCO IN THE

UNITED STATES PROVIDES A GOOD

COMPARISON.

AND MEETS THE TESTS.

IT WAS ILLEGAL PRODUCT, A LOT OF

PEOPLE USED IT AND ALL OF THESE

THINGS THAT YOU TALK ABOUT.

AND YET A SIMILAR TO CARBON

PRICING MECHANISM WAS INSTITUTED

TO TRY TO REDUCE SMOKING AND

THOSE BENEFITS SHARED WITH THE

GENERAL PUBLIC.

IS THERE SOMETHING TO BE LEARNED

THERE, AND I KNOW THAT YOU HAVE

A PERSONAL STORY IF YOU WOULD

LIKE TO TELL IT.

&gt;&gt; YES AND YES.

SO TOBACCO BECOMES THE

INTERESTING CASE.

AND I GENERALLY WISH MY DEAR

FRIEND AND COLLEAGUE, KEN

WARNER, A DEFINING FIGURE IN THE

PUBLIC HEALTH AND DEAN AND DEAN

OF RESEARCH ON THE POLITICAL

ECONOMY OF TOBACCO.

A COLLEAGUE EARLY IN MY CAREER

AND TALK MANY DAYS ABOUT

CHALLENGES HE WAS FACING AND

DEALING WITH A COMMODITY THAT

WAS LEGAL AND SUPPORT IN MANY

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS.

HAD ALL KINDS OF GOVERNMENT

PROGRAMS AND THE LIKE TO SUPPORT

IT.

AND YET THE EVIDENCE OF THE

RISKS WERE SEVERE.

AND HOW WE HAVE GONE TO A

SOCIETY WHEN I ARRIVED AT THIS

CAMPUS, MORE THAN 40% OF

AMERICANS SMOKED TOBACCO ON A

REGULAR BASIS.

AND WE ARE NOW IN THE LOW TEENS.

IT IS BY SOME MEASURE ONE OF THE

GREAT PUBLIC HEALTH STORIES OF

MY LIFETIME.

AND KIARGUE THE OTHER IS CLEAN

ACT OVER THAT PERIOD.

SO TOBACCO BECOMES AN

INTERESTING CASE TO THINK ABOUT.

IT ALSO HITS HOME BECAUSE MY DAD

WORKED IN THE FIELD.

I WAS ENLISTED AT A VERY EARLY

AGE TO WRITE LETTERS TO

LEGISLATORS WHO HAD THE AUDACITY

TO WANT TO INFLUENCE MY DAD'S

LIVELIHOOD.

WHICH WAS SELLING TOBACCO

PRODUCTS AND WHEN PROPOSALS IN

ILLINOIS TO REDUCE THE EXCISE

TAX, THEY WERE SMALL AND I WAS

ENLISTED.

MY FIRST PROFESSIONAL WRITING, I

THINK HE SNUCK ME A BUCK A

LETTER.

BUT INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT

THAT, TOBACCO TAX AT THE FEDERAL

LEVEL OF 321% HIGHER THAN WHEN I

SET FOOT ON THIS CAMPUS.

DURING THAT TIME 126 SEPARATE

STATE DECISIONS TO INCREASE

CIGARETTE TAXES.

THAT'S NOT THE ONLY FACTOR

DRIVING THAT HUGE SHIFT IN

CHANGE.

THERE ARE REGULATORY PROCEDURES

AND THE LIKE, AND I READILY

ADMIT THAT BUT OF ALL EMPIRICAL

ACCOUNTS OF TOBACCO POLICY THE

BIGGEST SINGLE DRIVER IS THE

PRICE.

AND YET AT THE EARLY STAGES OF

THAT POLICY ADOPTION THE

THINKING THAT YOU HAVE TO GO

THROUGH THIS SOME OTHER

MECHANISM.

CONTROLLED ADVERTISING AND

RESTRICTED ACCESS.

ALL THAT PLAYED A ROLE.

BUT YOU COULD NOT GO TO THE

PRICE, AT THAT POINT 40%

AMERICANS ARE USING THAT AND

THAT POLITICS SHIFTED IN A

NUMBER OF WAYS.

THE POINT HERE IS NOT THAT

EPIDEMIOLOGY THAT TOBACCO TO

HEALTH RISKS AND THE LIKE BUT

HOW WE HAVE TAKEN THE TOOL OF

TAXATION AND DIFFICULT THAT IS

AND SPECIAL ON COMMODITY PRICES

AND TO ASK THEM TO USE A PRODUCT

THAT HARMS THEM AND OTHERS AND

CREATE A PUBLIC HEALTH REFORM.

&gt;&gt; ARE THE BARRIERS IN THE

POLITICAL REALM OR SCIENTIFIC

REALM?

&gt;&gt; THEY ARE HEAVY ENOUGH IN THE

POLITICAL REALM.

&gt;&gt; DON'T NEED ANYMORE.

&gt;&gt; IT WOULD BE SO MUCH EASIER IF

WE WERE AT THE POINT WHERE WE

WERE WITH THE SULFUR DIOXIDE

EXPERIMENT IN THE 1990S AND THIS

IS ONE LESSON FROM THAT MODEL TO

APPLY FROM SULFUR DIOXIDE TO

CARBON.

YES, THE CAP WORKED.

YES, THE EMISSIONS WENT WAY

DOWN.

YET THE SECRET SAUCE THERE WAS

TWO THINGS, READILY AVAILABLE

TECHNOLOGY IF UTILITIES WANTED

TO BURN COAL, AND PURCHASE

SCRUBBERS AND ACHIEVE THE JOB.

AND TAX CREDIT INCENTIVES TO

ALLOW THEM TO DO IT.

I AM NOT AWARE OF ANY CARBON

EMISSION REDUCTION THAT WORKS

THE SAME WAY FOR COAL AND

SCRUBBING OUT CARBON.

AT THE SAME TIME THE POLITICS

ARE INTERESTING AND IGNORED TO

HOLD UP THE SO-2 CASES AND THAT

FACT THAT THERE IS COAL WITH

MUCH LOWER SULFUR CONTENT.

AND GUESS WHAT?

IT'S NOT LOCATED IN PENNSYLVANIA

OR WEST VIRGINIA BUT IN STATES

LIKE WYOMING AND MONTANA, AND

OTHER JURISDICTIONS.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLITICS THAT

MADE THE 1990 CLEAN AIR

AMENDMENTS AND THAT WORKED.

AND WASN'T JUST THE COMING

TOGETHER AND LARGER COALESCE

AROUND IT, BUT PART OF IT BUT

YOU HAD TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE

BROUGHT OFF THE SHELF AND

BENEFIT FROM THE USE.

AND YOU HAD LEGISLATIVE EFFORTS,

DICK CHENEY AND THEN WYOMING'S

ONLY MEMBER OF HOUSE OF

REPRESENTATIVES.

AND NOT SEEN AS A FAN OF PUTTING

EMISSIONS ON THE USE OF FOSSIL

FUELS.

AND SHIFTED BECAUSE IT WAS THE

BEST THING FOR WYOMING POLITICS

BECAUSE IT MEANT THAT WYOMING

COAL WAS MORE ATTRACTIVE THAN

PRODUCED IN WEST VIRGINIA.

TECHNOLOGY IS BIG AND

SIGNIFICANT.

AND ARGUE ON THE CARBON AREA

THAT THE BEST THING IN LAST 10

YEARS IS ADVANCEMENT OF

TECHNOLOGY ON RENEWABLES AND THE

WAY THEY MOVE FORWARD AND TAKE

HOLD OF A GREAT NUMBER OF

STATES.

INCLUDING A GREAT NUMBER OF

PLACES THAT NEVER COME CLOSE TO

ADOPTING A CARBON TAX, LIKE

TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

&gt;&gt; ARE THERE EXPERIMENTS THAT

HAVE YIELDED RESULTS?

I KNOW THAT CALIFORNIA HAS NOT

DROPPED THIS IN LIGHT OF FEDERAL

POLICY.

GOVERNOR BROWN READY TO GO IT

ALONE AND MICHAEL BLOOMBERG IS A

VOICE FOR THAT PRIVATE SECTOR

INDEPENDENT OF GOVERNMENT

ACTION.

ARE THERE EXAMPLES IN THIS

COUNTRY, AND ANYWHERE ELSE ALL

THINGS THAT WE THINK CAN HAPPEN

IN THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO HAVE

HAPPENED.

&gt;&gt; YES.

THINK ABOUT WIND.

AND GO BACK TO WHERE WE WERE IN

NOT THAT LONG AGO FORMER

PRESIDENT BUSH STOOD BEFORE THE

AMERICAN WIND ASSOCIATION AND

GOT A STANDING OVATION.

BECAUSE OF PIONEERING ACTION HE

HAD SIGNED AS GOVERNOR OF TEXAS

IN 1999.

TO OPEN THE WAY OF THAT

DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGY AND

THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND IN

TEXAS.

I WAS AT A MEETING INDEPENDENT

OF THIS SITTING NEXT TO THE

SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF OKLAHOMA

LEGISLATURE, A FEW MONTHS AGO.

AND HE POINTED OUT TO ME ONE DAY

THIS YEAR, OKLAHOMA, BIG GAS AND

OIL LAND AND SAID ONE DAY THIS

YEAR WE GOT 61% OF OUR

ELECTRICITY FROM WIND.

JUST THAT ONE TECHNOLOGY.

TRANSITION AND OTHER AREAS, NOT

MY EXPERTISE AND A NUMBER OF

FOLKS IN THE ROOM FAR BETTER TO

ANSWER THIS QUESTION THAN I AM.

HUGE SHIFTS IN CHANGE IN THAT

REGARD.

AND THAT SAID, A CONSEQUENCE

FROM NAEARLIER PERIOD IT HAS

PROVEN A LOT EASIER TO CONTINUE

OUR RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUEL THAN

WE THOUGHT.

AND DANIEL AMY ON HIS WORK ON

FRACKING DEBATE HAD THESE

QUESTIONS AND ISSUES.

AND WHAT HAPPENS WHEN FOSSIL

FUELS ARE SUDDENLY MORE

AAVAILABLE AND MORE ABUNDANT.

AND THAT MECHANISM ON THE OTHER

SIDE OF THE LEDGER HAVE EMERGED

ALONGSIDE THIS.

AND I THINK WITH IT COMES A

REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION, NOT

OIL IN THAT WHOLE, BUT NATURAL

GAS.

AND IS THAT TRULY A BRIDGING

FUEL?

CAN WE REALLY REDUCE METHANE

EMISSIONS TO SUCH A LOW LEVEL OF

CONFIDENCE THAT YOU CAN MAKE A

CREDIBLE CASE FOR NATURAL GAS?

OR PRODUCTION PROCESSES AND

TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS ARE SO

SLIP SHOT THAT WE CAN'T COMPETE

AND GIVES ONE PAUSE.

&gt;&gt; WE ARE AT THE TAIL END OF A

HURRICANE SEASON THAT HAS BEEN

EPIC IN MANY WAYS AND THOSE OF

US ON THE EAST COAST HAVE SEEN

UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING AND MORE

RAIN THAN MY LIFETIME.

AND IS URGENCY BUILDING, AND I

KNOW THAT YOU CAN'T TIE

PARTICULAR RECORDS TO CLIMATE

CHANGE AND DO YOU SENSE A SENSE

OF URGENCY.

AND ONE TIME THAT SCIENCE SAVE

US AND MAYBE YOUR RESEARCH THAT

IT'S ECONOMISTS THAT SAVE US

INSTEAD OF SCIENTISTS?

&gt;&gt; FROM MY OWN VANTAGE POINT OF

MY OFFICE, THE SIGNS OF EVIDENT.

THE SCIENCE IS REALLY QUITE

COMPELLING.

IT BECOMES ONLY STRONGER OVER

TIME.

WHAT THAT MEANS, A YEAR, FIVE,

DEBATE.

THAT IS NOT HELD BY ALL

AMERICANS.

IN MOST OF OUR SURVEYS WE

CONTINUE TO FIND WHEN YOU ASK

AMERICANS IS THERE SOLID

EVIDENCE OF WARMING GLOBAL

TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FOUR

YEARS.

-- 40 YEARS, EXCUSE ME.

NOTICE I DIDN'T SAY USER

CAUSATION, YOU FIND SOME

AMERICANS THAT DON'T KNOW OR NOT

SURE.

THERE IS A DIVIDE IN THE U.S. IN

MANY PLACES AND THAT COMPLICATES

ANY POLITICAL CASE TO ACT.

WHEN YOU HAVE A BUILD IN

COALITION THAT DOES NOT SEE THAT

AS AN ISSUE OR PROBLEM.

THERE IS OFTEN A KIND OF

QUESTIONING OR CHALLENGE THAT

TAKES PLACE IN SCIENCE.

EVEN TOBACCO A HALF CENTURY

AFTER THE SURGEON GENERAL'S

REPORT AND AMERICANS ARGUE THAT

EVEN SHOWN IN GALLOP POLLS THAT

NO EVIDENCE TO CANCER.

AND NOT SAYING THE SAME BUT A

WEAKENING OF THAT DEBATE AND A

CHALLENGING ONE.

I THINK THAT THOSE THAT WANT TO

ENGAGE IN SERIOUS ACTION ON

CLIMATE, IT'S IMPORTANT TO BEGIN

TO THINK THOUGH ABOUT MEANINGFUL

AND CREDIBLE WAYS TO MAKE THE

SCIENCE RELEVANT.

BECAUSE IT WILL MATTER

DIFFERENTLY AND EMERGE

DIFFERENTLY IN SUBCLIMATES AND

ECOSYSTEMS.

I SEE IT INTRIGUING THAT PERHAPS

THE FIRST STATE TO ADOPT A

CARBON TAX MAY NOT BE NEW YORK

OR MASSACHUSETTS, IT MAY BE

ALASKA.

PART BECAUSE IN THAT STATE THEY

ARE SEEING PROFOUND AND UNIQUE

TO ALASKA SHIFTS AND CHANGES IN

ECONOMIES AFFECTING PUBLIC

SAFETY AS ROADS COLLAPSE AND

RELEVANT FOR THAT KIND OF

CONVERSATION.

AND WE TALK ABOUT GLOBAL CHANGE

AND LOOK AT REPORTS AND LIST 1°,

OR 2° ALL RELEVANT STUFF.

AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL MEAN

DIFFERENT
AND A WAY TO TAILOR

THAT MESSAGE THAT IS CREDIBLE

AND REAL IS SIGNIFICANT.

&gt;&gt; THE ALASKA EXAMPLE IS

COMPLETELY IMPORTANT, YOU TALK

TO PEOPLE FROM ALASKA AND THE

LIBERAL/CONSERVATIVE THING

BREAKS DOWN BECAUSE THEY ARE

ARCTIC COMMUNITIES.

AND YOU MAY KNOW THAT AN ENTIRE

AREA IN ALASKA IS BEING MOVED

BECAUSE IT'S NOT STABLE.

AND WE ARE AT THE POINT WHERE I

TURNOVER TO YOU FOR YOUR

COMMENTS AND I HAVE A DOZEN OF

MY OWN AND I NEED TRANSITION FOR

SARAH AND CLAIRE.

AND ASK ONE FINAL QUESTION

BEFORE TURNING TO YOUR

QUESTIONS.

WHAT CHANGED SINCE YOU WROTE THE

BOOK, IF YOU WERE TO WRITE AN

ADDITIONAL CHAPTER RIGHT NOW,

WHAT WOULD THAT CONTAIN?

A GIMMICKY QUESTION I ADMIT BUT

SOMETIMES YIELD AN INTERESTING

ANSWER.

&gt;&gt; AND ONE THING, JOHN AND I

DON'T THINK I HAD HAPPEN ON

ANYTHING THAT I HAD WRITTEN

BEFORE.

AND IT IS WHEN I COMPLETED THE

MANUSCRIPT RETURNING TO ANN

ARBOR IN 2016 AND WENT THROUGH

THE REVIEW PROCESS AND ACADEMIC

PROCESSES OF A MANUSCRIPT

BECOMING A BOOK.

A LOT OF WORLD OF CHANGING, IT

ALWAYS DOES; RIGHT.

BUT A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES BEGAN

TO MAKE STEPS TOWARDS CARBON

PRICE, INCLUDING CHINA,

INCLUDING JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA,

MEXICO, COLOMBIA.

AND CANADA, TRIED TO ADOPT A

NATIONWIDE CARBON PRICING

STRATEGY WORKING WITH ALL THE

PROVIDENCES AND WE HAD THE

ELECTION IN THE U.S. WITH SHIFTS

IN FEDERAL POLICY.

AND WITH OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

NOT TO GO THROUGH CONGRESS AND

USE THE CLEAN AIR ACT TO

ESTABLISH A CARBON TAX STRATEGY

THROUGH ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION.

ALL WHICH WERE SUSCEPTIBLE TO

SHIFTS.

TRIED TO SHOW THAT WITH TRUMP

AND OBAMA AND AROUND THE WORLD,

I DON'T THINK THAT FUNDAMENTAL

SHIFTS THE THRUST OF THE BOOK.

FOR THE FACT ONE OF THE FEW

TIMES IN MY LIFE I CHOSE NOT TO

MAKE A DECLARATIVE STATEMENT IN

THE TITLE, I SHIFTED TOWARDS THE

QUESTIONING.

BECAUSE I WANT YOU TO THINK

ABOUT THAT, AND BECAUSE I'M NOT

SURE.

BUT I CLEARLY HAVE MY DOUBTS

WHETHER THIS IS FEASIBLE.

AND I AM NOT SURE THAT ANYTHING

HAPPENED IN THE LAST YEAR THAT

FUNDAMENTALLY ALTERS THAT.

BUT A HUGE SET OF CHALLENGES FOR

ME GOING FORWARD.

AND ALSO FOR ANYONE IN THIS ROOM

AND BEYOND WITH INTEREST IN THIS

QUESTION.

NOT WITH JUST RAISING CONCERN

ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE BUT HOW

DOES ONE DO THAT IN POLITICALLY

AND SOCIALLY CREDIBLE WAYS,

ECONOMICALLY RESPONSIBLE WAYS.

HOW DOES ONE PHYSICIAN A

POLITICAL COALITION THAT CAN

COME TOGETHER AND NOT JUST LAST

FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND

REVERSED.

BECAUSE THAT DOES NO ONE ANY

GOOD.

&gt;&gt; OKAY, WE WILL TURN TO YOUR

QUESTIONS AND HIRED LEGAL

QUESTION FROM ARIZONA, CLAIRE.

&gt;&gt; BEFORE I JUMP IN, I WILL

BRIEFLY INTRODUCE MYSELF, MY

NAME IS CLAIRE, SENIOR AND

STUDYING ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY.

AND I HAVE HAD THE PLEASURE OF

WORKING WITH DR.

RABE OVER THE

LAST MONTHS OF FEASIBILITY OF

METHANE FLARING.

THAT HAS BEEN INCREASED IN THE

LAST DECADE THAT IS GENERALLY

UNHEARD OF.

THE QUESTION THAT TWO PROPOSALS,

ONE CLIMATE LOBBY AND GEORGE

SCHULTZ/BAKER, WHAT WILL IT TAKE

TO GET BIPARTISAN SUPPORT IN

U.S. CONGRESS?

&gt;&gt; NEXT QUESTION.

&gt;&gt; BACK TO YOU JOHN.

&gt;&gt; WHO IS CHOOSING THESE

QUESTIONS?

&gt;&gt; YOU KNOW, THANK YOU FOR THE

QUESTION, CLAIRE, WHOEVER WROTE

IT.

IT IS A VERY INTERESTING MOMENT

IN A POLITICAL SYSTEM WHERE

THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO IMMEDIATE

LIKELIHOOD THAT A PARTICULAR

POLICY CAN BE ADOPTED.

TO THEN WORK ON THE IDEA SIDE

AND BEGIN TO THINK WHAT THE

POLICY MIGHT LOOK LIKE DOWN THE

ROAD.

AND THEN BEGIN TO THINK ABOUT

THE CONDITIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES

UNDER WHICH IT MIGHT HAPPEN.

AND SO THE PROPOSALS THAT YOU

ARTICULATE ARE INTERESTING.

A FEW OF THE TRENDS WE ARE

SEEING IN D.C. RIGHT NOW ARE A

SHIFT AWAY FROM FOCUSING AS MUCH

ON CAP AND TRADE AS WE WERE 10

YEARS AGO AND FOCUSING MUCH MORE

ON THE TAX IDEA.

AND WITH IT EXPRESSING YOUR

QUESTION ARE THESE REVENUE

ALLOCATION STRATEGIES.

AND PART OF THAT BECOMES WHEN

YOU THINK ABOUT IMPOSING SOME

COST BUT THEN THE ALLOCATION, IS

HOW ARE YOU TRYING TO BUILD YOUR

COALITION?

CLEARLY THE MORE YOU MOVE

TOWARDS A REVENUE RETURN OR A

TAX CUT PROVISION, THE MORE

THEORETICALLY YOU ARE MOVING

RIGHT OF CENTER AND LOOKING FOR

REPUBLICAN VOTES OR POTENTIAL

REPUBLICAN VOTES.

AND JUST RECENTLY TWO REPUBLICAN

LEGISLATORS IN THE HOUSE

INTRODUCED LEGISLATION.

NOT CLEAR THEY ARE GOING TO

SURVIVE THEIR COMING RE-ELECTION

BID AND FOCUS ON INFRASTRUCTURE

AND OTHER SITUATIONS AND ISSUES.

AND INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT

KIND OF A CENTEROUS COALITION

LOOK LIKE THAN OTHERS THAT HAVE