Justin Wolfers speaks with New York Times about polling voter expectation
"More information produces better results," Wolfers told the New York Times. Asking voters whom they expect to win an election, rather than simply for whom they will vote, allows the respondent to synthesize the views of their larger social network, news coverage, and campaign performance.
A new study by Wolfers and Microsoft economist David Rothschild shows that polling for voter expectations more accurately forecasts an election outcome than polling for voter intentions. The study, which has drawn the attention of the polling organization Gallup, will soon be submitted to journals for review.