Core measures do a better job to predict inflation, says Wolfers

August 16, 2022 Quartz

Economists have a lot of data—consumer prices and monthly inflation rates— to measure inflation and predict prices. But Ford School economist Justin Wolfers explains that cherrypicked numbers are contributing to general confusion about what's happening with inflation.

“Every number is an answer to a question,” Wolfers said. “If what I’m trying to do is predict the future path of inflation, the so-called core measures [that exclude energy and food prices] do a better job.”