Foreign Affairs asks Wolfers, "Are we headed toward recession?"

March 30, 2023 Foreign Affairs

Justin Wolfers, Foreign Affairs: "The economy definitely could fall into recession—there is always a risk—but it is worth remembering that it is never a certainty. The only time horizon over which economists have a good record in predicting recessions is that we are usually (though not always) pretty confident once we are about two months into a recession. For that reason, I think substantial humility is demanded on all sides."