Join the Weiser Diplomacy Center and American Academy of Diplomacy for a live recording of the latest episode of the podcast American Diplomat: The Stories behind the news.
Transcript:
WELCOME, EVERYBODY.
I'M REALLY HAPPY TO HAVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO PARTNER WITH THE
AMERICAN ACADEMY OF DIPLOMACY,
WITH LIVE REPORTING OF AMERICAN
DIPLOMAT ON THE THEME OF
"US/BRAZIL BROMANCE: WHAT'S IN
STORE FOR US?".
WE ARE JOINED BY LAURA BENNETT
WHO IS A PRODUCER AND HOST OF
AMERICAN DIPLOMAT AND ON THE
FAR END AMBASSADOR THOMAS
SHANNON AND AMBASSADOR PETER
ROMERO WHO IS A 25 YEAR VETERAN
OF THE FOREIGN SERVICE WHO
SERVED MOST RECENTLY AS
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE.
BEFORE THAT AS DEPUTY ASSISTANT
SECRETARY AND AS AMBASSADOR TO
ECUADOR.
HE WAS CHARGE D'AFFAIRES IN EL
SALVADOR AND ONE OF THE
ARCHITECTS AND INSTIGATORS OF
PLANNED COLOMBIA.
I WILL TURN IT OVER TO
AMBASSADOR ROMERO WHO WILL TAKE
IT OVER FROM THERE.
Ambassador Romero: WELCOME
TO AMERICAN DIPLOMAT, REAL
STORIES BEHIND THE NEWS.
I AM ROMERO AND WITH ME IS --
LAURA BENNETT.
Ambassador Romero: I WANT TO
REMIND PEOPLE WE HAVE ONE OF
THESE STILL PHOTOS ON OUR
WEBSITE WHICH FEATURES --
SORRY.
WHICH FEATURES OUR THREE
GOLDENDOODLE DOGS AT THE
MICROPHONE AND IT WASN'T JUST
WHIMSY.
THE REASON WE WERE TOGETHER,
LAURA AND I MET WALKING OUR
DOGS IN EASTON MART -- MARYLAND
AND THE THIRD DOODLE, SANTOS,
IS THE PET OF THE OWNER OF OUR
STUDIOS IN WASHINGTON SO PLEASE
CHECK THAT OUT IF YOU HAVEN'T
ALREADY.
Laura: THEY ARE CUTE.
Ambassador Romero: THEY ARE
DOGS.
WE HAVE A SPECIAL TREAT TODAY
FOR OUR LISTENERS, WE ARE
PLEASED TO BE COMING TO YOU
FROM THE GERALD FORD SCHOOL OF
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN.
OUR VISIT IS SPONSORED BY THE
WISER DIPLOMATIC CENTER AND IT
IS PART OF A SERIES WE HAVE
ONGOING IN OUR PODCAST CALLED
IS IT HAPPENING HERE?
WE HAVE 80 PODCASTS, WE'VE BEEN
IN BUSINESS FOR 15 MONTHS AND I
THINK YOU WILL FIND SOME VERY
INTERESTING THINGS AS IT
RELATES TO FIRST-PERSON STORIES
OF OUR DIPLOMATS IN PRACTICE
OVERSEAS.
IS IT HAPPENING HERE IS A
SERIES WE RUN FROM TIME TO
TIME.
WE LOOKED AT VLADIMIR PUTIN'S
RUSSIA, ERDOGAN'S TURKEY,
CHAVEZ'S VENEZUELA AND WE WANT
TO LOOK AT JAIR BOLSONARO'S
BRAZIL AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR
US.
I'M PLEASED TO WELCOME THE MOST
INFORMED DIPLOMATS WE COULD
BRING TO THIS DISCUSSION.
TO MY LEFT IS TOM SHANNON, HEAD
OF 33 OR 34?
341/2, 34.5 YEAR CAREER IN
FOREIGN SERVICE.
HE WAS THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY
FOR THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
AFFAIRS AND AMBASSADOR FOR
BRAZIL FROM 2010-2013 AND WE
WILL PICK HIS BRAIN ABOUT THAT.
GO AND ALSO THE NUMBER 3 PERSON
IN THE STATE DEPARTMENT,
UNDERSECRETARY FOR POLITICAL
AFFAIRS, TO INCLUDE THE COUNCIL
OF THE DEPARTMENT FOR A WILD.
WE ARE PLEASED TO HAVE WITH US
AMBASSADOR MELVIN, PROFESSOR OF
THE GERALD FORD SCHOOL OF
PUBLIC POLICY.
HE TAUGHT FOR EIGHT YEARS AS
PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC
ADMINISTRATION IN INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS AT SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY.
HE WAS ELECTED BY A VOTE OF THE
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL COUNCIL TO A SEAT ON THE
INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS CONTROL
BOARD, AN INDEPENDENT BODY OF
EXPERTS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MONITORING AND PROMOTING
STANDARDS OF DRUG CONTROL
ESTABLISHED BY INTERNATIONAL
TREATIES.
DURING HIS 35 YEAR CAREER IN
THE FOREIGN SERVICE AS A US
DIPLOMAT HE WAS AMBASSADOR TO
BRAZIL, ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF
STATE FOR INTERNATIONAL
NARCOTICS, EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
OF THE STATE DEPARTMENT,
AMBASSADOR TO BULGARIA, THE
RECIPIENT OF SEVERAL
MERITORIOUS AWARDS AND
ESTABLISHED HONOR AWARDS.
WELCOME.
THANKS FOR COMING TO THE
FORD SCHOOL.
Laura: YOU KNOW SO MUCH.
AMERICAN DIPLOMAT IS A PROJECT
OF THE COX FOUNDATION IN
PARTNERSHIP WITH THE AMERICAN
ACADEMY OF DIPLOMACY.
WE ARE TALKING.
Ambassador Romero: WHAT I
WOULD REALLY LIKE TO DO IS
SCROLL BACK IN TIME.
IT WASN'T BUT 5 OR 6 YEARS AGO
THAT THE OLD ADAGE OF BRAZIL IS
THE COUNTRY OF THE FUTURE AND
ALWAYS WILL BE SEEMED TO BE
OUTDATED, LOOKED LIKE IT WAS
BRAZIL'S TIME.
THEY WERE A LEADER IN THE
REGION IF NOT INTERNATIONALLY,
THEY HAD BECOME MEMBERS OF THE
BRICK COUNTRIES, BRAZIL,
RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND, SOME
PEOPLE, SOUTH AFRICA.
A COUNTERWEIGHT TO US
INFLUENCE.
THAT WAS ESSENTIALLY, IT WAS
SUPPOSED TO BE THE MERGING
GREAT POWERS.
WEISER DIPLOMACY CENTER
DIPLOMATICALLY AS WELL AS
ECONOMICALLY.
Ambassador Romero: THE
LARGEST OIL AND GAS RESERVES IN
THE WORLD FOUND OFF THE COAST,
INCREDIBLE PRODUCTION OF
ETHANOL, EXPORT OF ETHANOL
REGIONALLY.
IT REALLY LOOKED -- GROWTH
RATES WHICH WERE THROUGH THE
CEILING.
IT LOOKED LIKE BRAZIL'S TIME
HAD FINALLY COME.
TOM?
WHAT DID YOU DO WRONG?
Guest: I LEFT BEFORE IT ALL
CAME UNDONE.
LET ME START BY SAYING WHAT A
PLEASURE IT IS TO BE HERE,
ESPECIALLY TO BE WITH MISTER
LIVE IN SKI WHO WAS AN ICON IN
THE FOREIGN SERVICE WHO I
ADMIRED GREATLY.
MORE IMPORTANTLY WHEN I WAS
AMBASSADOR TO BRAZIL IN THE
ENTRYWAY TO THE AMBASSADOR'S
OFFICE AS YOU WALK INTO THE
LARGER SWEET, ALL OF THE FORMER
AMBASSADOR'S PHOTOGRAPHS ARE
HANGING ON THE WALL SO EVERY
DAY I CAME TO WORK AND LEFT
WORK, HE LOOKED AT ME AND ASKED
ME WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR YOUR
COUNTRY TODAY?
SOMETIMES I HAD A GOOD ANSWER
AND SOMETIMES I DIDN'T.
Ambassador Romero: THIS WAS
BEFORE MAKE AMERICA GREAT
AGAIN.
Guest: I KNEW SOMETHING WAS
ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN BRAZIL.
IN SUMMER OF 2013, WHEN AT THE
CONFEDERATION CUP OPENER IN
WHICH BRAZIL WAS PLAYING JAPAN,
A LEAD UP TO THE WORLD CUP AND
BRAZIL WAS THE HOST AND THE
OLYMPICS, IT WAS GOING TO BE A
SERIES OF GLOBAL SPORTING
EVENTS THAT WOULD CEMENT
BRAZIL'S STATURE GLOBALLY AS A
SOFT POWER THAT HAD EMERGED AS
A GLOBAL POWER, MAYBE ONE OF
THE FIRST.
AS THE TEAMS CAME ONTO THE
FIELD AND OTHER THAN HEAD OF
FEE FOR --FIFA PREPARED FOR
SPEECH, SHE WAS THE PRESIDENT
OF THE TIME, EVERYONE IN THE
STADIUM STARTED WHISTLING.
WHISTLING IN BRAZIL IS LIKE
BLUEIING.
BLUEIIOIOING.
I REMEMBER THINKING SOMETHING
IS HAPPENING, WITH A LARGELY
MIDDLE-CLASS CROWD, LARGELY A
CROWD FROM BRASÍLIA, GOVERNMENT
SAID, RESPONDING IN THIS
FASHION.
IT WAS STRIKING.
VERY SOON AFTER THAT, EVEN
BEFORE THAT HAD STARTED, THE
POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS OF
DEMONSTRATIONS HAD TAKEN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUMMER OF
2013.
DID THEY START WITH THE
PROTEST ON THE AMOUNT OF MONEY
THE BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT WAS
SPENDING ON OLYMPIC FACILITIES
AND WORLD CUP FACILITIES?
IT STARTS WITH A HIKE IN BUS
FARE.
A FAIRLY SMALL HIKE.
BUT IT HAD A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
CITIZENS WHO TRAVELED BY BUS.
THEY STARTED DEMONSTRATING BUT
IT CAUGHT FIRE AND ROLLED
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
SOME OF IT WAS LINKED TO
SPENDING ON STADIUMS BUT IT WAS
MOSTLY FOCUSED ON CONCERN ABOUT
HIGH TAX RATES AND LOW SERVICE
PROVISIONS.
THIS IS WHAT GENERATES IT, WHAT
BEGINS IT.
THIS IS COMBINED WITH A
POLITICAL CRISIS WHICH LEADS TO
IMPEACHMENT AND EFFECTIVELY THE
COLLAPSE OF BRAZIL'S POLITICAL
CLASS AND OPENS THE SPACE WE
SAW WITH THE ELECTION OF JAIR
BOLSONARO.
DID YOU FORESEE THIS
HAPPENING IN BRAZIL?
THERE'S A CERTAIN NOSTALGIA IN
BRAZIL EVEN MORE SO TODAY, THE
MILITARY JUNTA RAN THE COUNTRY,
DID YOU FEEL ANY OF THAT, THEY
FELT THE GOVERNMENT HAD GONE
TOO FAR.
GO WAY BACK, AND WHAT WAS ON
THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER
FOR A COUPLE YEARS AND
TRANSFERRED TO BRASÍLIA AS WE
WERE MOVING THE EMBASSY SO I
HAD THAT EXPERIENCE AND DID
WHAT I MOSTLY WANTED TO DO WITH
SOVIET AFFAIRS, EASTERN EUROPE
AND WAS FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO BE
NAMED AMBASSADOR TO BRAZIL IN
THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IN
1994.
I SERVED FOR FOUR YEARS THERE
BECAUSE WE HAD A SUCCESSION OF
REPLACEMENTS FOR ME WHO DROPPED
OUT OR -- BRIAN ATWOOD HAD BEEN
DIRECTOR OF THE AGENCY FOR
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, WAS
VERY WELL-QUALIFIED TO BE
AMBASSADOR TO BRAZIL AND WAS
HELD UP ESSENTIALLY BY JESSE
HELMS AT THE TIME BECAUSE HE
HAD BEEN AGAINST BRINGING USAID
INTO THE STATE DEPARTMENT.
REMEMBER USAI WAS, THE AGENCY
FOR ARMS CONTROL AND
DISARMAMENT.
I HAD A LONG HISTORY WITH
BRAZIL AND RETAINED AN INTEREST
WHEN I WAS ASSISTANT SECRETARY
FOR INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS
BECAUSE BRAZIL BECAME A TRANSIT
COUNTRY FOR DRUGS COMING OUT OF
COLOMBIA, IN THAT AREA OF THE
ANDES.
YOU REMEMBER THAT VERY WELL
BECAUSE YOU WERE THERE.
MY SENSE, I WAS FORTUNATE TO BE
THERE AT A TIME WHEN THINGS
CHANGED FOR THE POSITIVE IN
BRAZIL.
WHEN I GOT TO BRAZIL IN JUNE
RIGHT BEFORE 4 JULY, JUNE 1994,
INFLATION WAS RUNNING AT 40% A
MONTH.
IF YOU WERE PAID BY A SALARY
YOU HAD TO SPEND IT RIGHT AWAY.
IF YOU DIDN'T SPEND IT AT THE
END OF THE MONTH, THE MONEY WAS
40%.
I REMEMBER CLEARLY THE STORY
WHERE WE WERE TRYING, WE WERE
GOING TO BUY THINGS, IN THE
LOCAL MARKET, I WENT OVER, WE
HAD A LITTLE BANK, SMALL
BANKING FACILITY ON EMBASSY
GROUNDS AND GAVE ME A SACK OF
MONEY.
I NEEDED A COUPLE THOUSAND
DOLLARS.
IT WAS LITERALLY A SACK OF
MONEY.
AS I WAS WALKING ACROSS THE LOT
I WAS THINKING TO MYSELF AS I
WALK ACROSS THIS LOT THIS MONEY
IS GETTING TO BE WORTHLESS.
I CALLED MY WIFE AND SAID I AM
SENDING OUT A SACK OF MONEY, WE
HAVE PEOPLE WHO WORKED IN THE
EMBASSY WHO DID THE FOURTH OF
JULY PARTY.
HAVE THEM BUY EVERYTHING RIGHT
AWAY TODAY BECAUSE IT STEADILY
GOES DOWN.
PRESIDENT CARDOZA WHO HAD BEEN
FINANCE MINISTER UNDER THAT
GOVERNMENT WAS ELECTED AND
STOPPED EVEN BEFORE WITH HIS
PLAN, STOPPED INFLATION IN ITS
TRACKS.
THE MIDDLE CLASS BEGAN TO GROW,
INFLATION WAS ESSENTIALLY KEPT
GOING DOWN WHICH IS THE BIGGEST
THING IN BRAZIL FOR THE WORKERS
COULDN'T PLAY THE OVERNIGHT
BANK RATES, TO PLAY THE MONEY
MARKET.
IT WAS A PERIOD WHEN THINGS
TOOK OFF.
IF YOU LOOK AT THAT PERIOD OF
TIME, IT WASN'T BECAUSE OF ME
BUT THE BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT.
IT IS TOM'S FAULT.
WHEN I LEFT, THINGS WERE
REALLY MOVING.
I REMEMBER OUR RESIDENCE
WITHOUT A LITTLE FURTHER OUT OF
TOWN AND THERE WERE EVEN
MONKEYS IN THE TREES.
A FEW MONTHS INTO THE PLAN ALL
OF A SUDDEN THE HIGHWAY THAT
WENT ACROSS OUR PROPERTY WAS
JAMMED WITH CARS BECAUSE
MIDDLE-CLASS PEOPLE THAT LIVED
IN THE SUBURBS OF OLD TOWNS
WHERE THE WORKERS BEGAN TO
BUILD BRASÍLIA WERE BUYING
CARS, GOT JAMMED UP, MONKEYS
WENT AWAY, THEY DON'T LIKE
FUMES, THEY DON'T LIKE NOISE.
THAT WAS NEGATIVE.
THE POSITIVE WAS YOU GOT THE
MIDDLE-CLASS PARTICIPATING IN
THE ECONOMY AND CARDOZA WAS
WILDLY POPULAR.
CERTAIN THINGS HE COULDN'T GET
THROUGH CONGRESS BUT THAT
HAPPENS WITH EVERY --
HE WAS ALSO ONE OF THE FIRST
THINKERS AND MOVERS BEHIND THE
THIRD WAVE WHICH CLINTON, TONY
BLAIR --
BASICALLY A THIRD WAVE
BETWEEN NAKED CAPITALISM AND
SOCIALISM.
KIND OF WHAT WE ARE DISCUSSING
TODAY NOT VERY EFFECTIVELY,
DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM TODAY IN
TERMS OF WHERE DOES THE COUNTRY
LIE AT ANY TIME IN TERMS OF
LEVELING THE PLAYING FIELD SO
PEOPLE CAN COMPETE IN THIS SORT
OF THING.
THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS 25
YEARS AGO.
WEISER DIPLOMACY CENTER THERE
WERE MORE SOCIAL PROGRAMS AT
THIS TIME?
THE SOCIAL PROGRAMS WERE
PARTICULARLY FAMILIA WHICH WAS
LULA'S PLAN FOR POOR FAMILIES.
IT DID COME IN UNTIL LULA WAS
ELECTED SO -- MOSTLY PEOPLE
ROSE BECAUSE THE ECONOMY,
RISING SEA CELLS -- RISES ALL
BOATS.
YOU CONCEDE IN PLACES LIKE SAN
PABLO, RIO, THE BIG CITIES,
EVEN SMALLER CITIES THAT COME
IN.
THE AGRO BUSINESS WAS HUGE IN
BRAZIL COMPETING WITH THE
UNITED STATES.
SO THAT WAS A PERIOD WHEN I HAD
HOPED FOR BRAZIL.
I THOUGHT IT WOULD GO WELL BUT
REMEMBER AT THE END OF THE
CARDOZA PERIOD, WHAT CROPS UP?
THE BIGGEST PROBLEM BRAZIL HAS,
CORRUPTION.
IT WASN'T PART OF IT.
AT THE END OF THE CARDOZA
PERIOD HE SERVED EIGHT YEARS.
LOOKING AT IT NOW THERE WERE
MANY SCANDALS.
THESE THINGS BEGAN, WHERE
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TOOK
ADVANTAGE OF THEIR POSITION,
THAT IS A BIG ISSUE.
TOM KNOWS THIS AS WELL.
A BIG ISSUE WITH BRAZIL IS
CORRUPTION.
DO PEOPLE HAVE TRUST IN THE
GOVERNMENT WHEN THEY SEE MONEY
IS BEING SKIMMED OFF AND FEELS
ARE MADE?
IT USED TO BE LATIN AMERICA
THE PUBLIC RESPONSE TO A LOT OF
ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION BY
OFFICIALS WAS WHY DIDN'T I GET
MY PIECE?
NOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED
DRAMATICALLY.
WHAT HAPPENED IN THIS PERIOD?
YOU WERE THERE DURING WHAT
WOULD CONSTITUTE THE HEYDAY OF
LULA.
WHAT HAPPENED?
YOU HAD THE FAMILIA, PEOPLE
LIFTED OUT OF POVERTY, SOME
GREAT SOCIAL ENGINEERING GOING
ON AND THE ECONOMY IS BORING,
AND WHAT MEL WAS TALKING ABOUT,
BUT WHAT HAPPENED?
TELL US WHO LULA IS AND CAN
YOU HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT
HAPPENED IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF
THE PEOPLE OF THE COUNTRY?
WHAT IS DIFFERENT FOR THE
AVERAGE JOE?
'S ENVIRONMENT YET?
WHAT IS CHANGING THEIR
ATTITUDES AND WHAT IS CAUSING
IT?
A POLITICAL LEADER, A TRADE
UNIONIST AND POLITICAL LEADER,
WAS EVENTUALLY ELECTED
PRESIDENT IN THE AFTERMATH, IS
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
ECONOMIC STABILITY THAT WAS
CREATED, WAS ABLE TO BUILD IN A
SOCIAL OUTREACH PROGRAM, THE
POOREST PEOPLE IN BRAZIL.
IT MEANS THE FAMILY BASKET, IN
ORDER TO BUY WHAT WAS NECESSARY
AND IT IS UNDER INNOVATIVE
PROGRAM, MONEY IS PAID NOT TO
HEAD -- HEADS OF HOUSEHOLD BUT
2 WOMEN.
THE ASSUMPTION IS THEY WILL
SPEND THE MONEY RESPONSIBLY AND
MEN WILL NOT.
WHEN YOU ASK WHY THERE ARE
NO STRONG WOMEN IT IS BECAUSE
THEY ARE JUST TOO SENSIBLE
RATHER THAN STRONG MEN.
WHAT IS IMPORTANT HERE IS AS
THE LULA ADMINISTRATION BEGINS
TO ADDRESS EXTREME POVERTY IN
BRAZIL, A MIDDLE-CLASS IS
BUILDING AND AT ONE POINT IT
REACHES 100 MILLION PEOPLE
WHICH IS HALF OF BRAZIL'S
POPULATION AND THIS HAS A HUGE
IMPACT ON BRAZIL, A COUNTRY
WHICH HISTORICALLY WAS DEFINED
BY INEQUALITY, THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE WEALTHY AND THE
POOR, NOW HAS A CENTER OF THE
MIDDLE CLASS, STILL HAS GREAT
ANY QUALITY BUT THE
MIDDLE-CLASS CREATE STABILITY
AND PREDICTABILITY AND CREATES
A CONSUMER MARKET THAT DID NOT
EXIST PREVIOUSLY AND THIS HELPS
DRIVE THE ECONOMY.
WHAT IS STRIKING ABOUT THE
MIDDLE-CLASS IS THEY BELIEVE
THEY ACHIEVED THEIR ECONOMIC
WELL-BEING THROUGH THEIR OWN
HARD WORK AND NOT NECESSARILY
THROUGH GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS.
THEY BECOME DEMANDING OF A
GOVERNMENT AS OPPOSED TO
ADORNED WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND
THIS IS WHERE THE ISSUES OF
HIGH CRIME RATES, CORRUPTION
AND ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN HAVE A
HUGE POLITICAL IMPACT BECAUSE
THEY CREATE AND GENERATE A
GROUP OF NOW POLITICALLY ACTIVE
BRAZILIANS, A MIDDLE-CLASS WHO
HAVE NO POLITICAL VOICE, NO
POLITICAL PARTY OR POLITICAL
CANDIDATE TO REPRESENT HIM AND
THE RESULT IS A FOCUS BY THE
MIDDLE-CLASS ON WHAT THEY
CONSIDER TO BE THE INABILITY OF
GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS THE
PROBLEMS MOST IMPORTANT TO THEM
AND A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS ON
CORRUPTION AND THIS LEADS TO
THE INVESTIGATIONS IN THE
AFTERMATH OF A SIGNIFICANT
SCANDAL, THE CAR WASH SCANDAL
THAT LEADS TO THE TAKEDOWN OF
THE GOVERNMENT AND THE COLLAPSE
OF BRAZIL'S POLITICAL CLASS.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT BRAZIL, AND
LULA BRINGS THESE PEOPLE
THROUGH HIS PROGRAMS, THE
MIDDLE-CLASS IS STRENGTHENED
WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE ALL TRIED
TO DO AS DIPLOMATS, DO WHAT WE
COULD TO STRENGTHEN
MIDDLE-CLASS.
INSTEAD OF BEING SUBSERVIENT
AND ETERNALLY THANKFUL TO A
GOVERNMENT THAT DOES THAT, AS
HAS HAPPENED IN VENEZUELA RIGHT
NEXT DOOR, YOU HAVE A CORE
GROUP WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY
DWINDLING LATELY THAT STUCK
WITH CHAVEZ AND
Ambassador Romero: MADURO
LIKE DECENT EDUCATION AND
MEDICAL CARE.
THEY NEVER HAD THIS.
NOW THEY'VE GOT IT.
THE RESULTS IS THEY ARE SO
THANKFUL THEY PUT THEMSELVES
SUBSERVIENT TO A GOVERNMENT
THAT EVERYDAY BECOMES MORE
CORRUPT.
WHY DIDN'T THAT HAPPEN IN
BRAZIL?
DEMOCRACY HAS DEEP ROOTS IN
BRAZIL AND BRAZIL'S
CONSTITUTION IS A PROFOUND
INSTRUMENT OF POLITICAL
ORDERING.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND
PRESIDENT LULA IS VERY POPULAR
IN BRAZIL.
UNDER HOUSE ARREST.
HE IS INCARCERATED BUT HE
WAS PREVENTED FROM RUNNING IN
THE LAST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
BY DECISIONS BY THE COURTS BUT
SOME BELIEVE IF HE HAD RUN HE
WOULD HAVE WON.
BUT INDEPENDENT OF THAT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND
SOMETHING ABOUT BRAZIL.
BRAZIL HAS BECOME A COUNTRY OF
THE FUTURE, CERTAINLY A COUNTRY
OF THE PRESENT, A REMARKABLE
PLACEMENT DURING MY TIME THERE
I SAW COUNTRY WHICH HAD USED
DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES IN ITS
CONSTITUTION TO TRANSFORM
BRAZIL AS A COUNTRY.
WHEN I ARRIVED IN BRAZIL THE
FIRST TIME, I SERVED 7 YEARS OF
MY PROFESSIONAL CAREER IN
BRAZIL.
WHEN I ARRIVED FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN 1989 I WAS -- BRAZIL
WAS A DIFFERENT COUNTRY FROM
WHEN I RETURNED IN 2010.
WE HAD THE SAME BOUNDARIES, THE
SAME LANGUAGE BUT IT HAD GONE
THROUGH A SOCIAL
TRANSFORMATION.
SOME WAS BUILDING UP THE
MIDDLE-CLASS AND SOME OF IT WAS
ADDRESSING EXTREME POVERTY BUT
A LOT WAS ABOUT BUILDING
INFRASTRUCTURE.
IN TERMS OF WHAT IT WAS ABLE TO
DO IN BUILDING A COUNTRY THAT
WAS ABLE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF ITS NATIONAL
TERRITORY IT HAD DONE
REMARKABLE THINGS.
A COUNTRY WHICH WAS EFFECTIVELY
THE COUNTRY OF THE COAST, SWUNG
INTO BECOMING COUNTRY OF THE
AMAZON AND THE WEST AND EMERGED
AS ONE OF THE LARGEST FOOD
PRODUCERS AND FOOD EXPORTERS,
THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF
SUSTAINABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY.
IT WAS A COMFORTING REMARKABLE
THINGS AND THESE THINGS ARE
STILL IN PLACE.
WHAT IS STRIKING ABOUT THE
POLITICAL CRISIS THAT BRAZIL
LIVED THROUGH, IMAGINE THIS IN
THE UNITED STATES, THE
PRESIDENT IS IMPEACHED, HIS
PREDECESSOR IS ARRESTED AND
CHARGED WITH CRIMES, HIS
SUCCESSOR WOULD BE CHARGED WITH
CRIMES.
THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE IS
REMOVED FROM OFFICE, SENATE
MAJORITY LEADER IS ARRESTED AND
IMPRISONED AND THE HEAD OF
APPLE, BOEING AND FORD ARE ALL
ARRESTED.
THAT HAPPENED IN BRAZIL BUT
BRAZILIANS CLUNG TO THEIR
DEMOCRATIC PURPOSE AND THEY
BELIEVED THEIR INSTITUTIONS
COULD ACCOMPLISH, AND IN MANY
WAYS THIS IS THE UNTOLD STORY
OF BRAZIL.
ESPECIALLY IN THE NATIONAL
MEDIA PEOPLE WONDER, IS JAIR
BOLSONARO A THREAT TO
DEMOCRACY?
INDEPENDENT OF HIS FUTURE, THIS
REPRESENTS THE BRAZILIAN
PEOPLE'S COMMITMENT TO
DEMOCRACY AND INSISTENCE THEIR
LEADERS BE ACCOUNTABLE TO
VOTERS AND ULTIMATELY RESPOND
TO WHAT THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE
WANT TO.
I REMEMBER AN INCIDENT OF
CORRUPTION BEFORE PRESIDENT
CLINTON CAME TO BRAZIL,
REMEMBER THE COMMERCIAL MANUAL,
THE BUSINESSMAN, HOW CUSTOMS
WORK, HOW DO YOU DO BUSINESS IN
BRAZIL?
THERE WAS A SENTENCE IN THERE
THAT, PAGE 130, THE PRESS
PICKED UP ON AND THE SENTENCE
WAS CORRUPTION IS ENDEMIC IN
BRAZIL.
SO IT BECAME A BIG THING.
I GOT CALLS, I MADE A MISTAKE
BECAUSE IT WAS AN HONEST
STATEMENT.
WHAT I SHOULD HAVE DONE WAS
DISAVOW IT RIGHT AWAY EVEN
THOUGH IT WAS TRUE BUT
SOMETIMES HONESTY IS NOT THE
BEST POLICY AND IT DIDN'T WORK
VERY WELL AND WE HAD TO SAY IT
WAS A PROBLEM BUT WE WILL
CHANGE THE WORDING.
WE ARE TALKING 1998.
THIS WAS 1995.
THIS WAS A PROBLEM WITH BRAZIL
ALONG WITH INFLATION AND
GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRACY, THAT
WAS A PROBLEM FOR A LONG TIME
AND THERE HAD BEEN VARIOUS
ATTEMPTS TO DEAL WITH THIS.
BRAZIL IS A THRIVING DEMOCRACY.
ONE THING WE DIDN'T MENTION IS
BOLSONARO LOVE THE MILITARY AND
HAS NOSTALGIA FOR THE MILITARY.
GO OF TIME.
THE MILITARY WAS RESPONSIBLE.
I DON'T THINK THEY WANT TO GET
BACK IN CONTROL ANYMORE.
I AM SURE TOM FOUND THEM.
I DON'T THINK THEY ARE
ALONE.
THE ARGENTINE MILITARY AND
BOLIVIAN MILITARY, NONE OF THEM
WANT TO RUN THIS THING BECAUSE
IT HAS BECOME TOO COMPLICATED.
ONE MORE COMMENT ON THIS.
ONE OF THE BIG THINGS ABOUT
FAMILIA WAS EDUCATION.
AS PART OF PARTICIPATION, THE
FAMILY HAD TO MAKE SURE THE KID
HAD A GOOD ATTENDANCE RECORD IN
SCHOOL AND HAD A HEALTH CHECK
EVERY, I'VE FORGOTTEN WHAT IT
IS, EVERY FEW MONTHS.
BIG ISSUE AMONG THE LOWER
MIDDLE CLASSES WHERE SOMETIMES
THEY DROP OUT OF SCHOOL AND
HAVE TO WORK IN THE STREET.
WE HAVE STREET CHILDREN ISSUES
AND CHILDREN WORKING TO MAKE
MONEY FOR THE FAMILY.
THAT SOMEBODY HELPED --
EVENTUALLY WILL HELP BRAZIL GET
TO THE POINT WHERE EDUCATION
PARTICULARLY HIGHER EDUCATION
IS OPEN TO EVERYBODY RATHER
THAN JUST THE UPPER-CLASS AND
THE ELITE IN BRAZIL.
I AM WONDERING ABOUT THE
AVERAGE BRAZILIAN, THE JOE BLOW
OF BRAZIL.
I GET A PRETTY GOOD PICTURE.
WHO THEY RODRIGUEZ.
JOSE IS MARRIED AND HAS A
COUPLE KIDS.
HERE IS WHAT I HAVE READ
PRECEDING THE ELECTION OF
BOLSONARO AND YOU CAN TELL ME
HOW SIMILAR THIS IS WHAT YOU
EXPERIENCED.
STUDENTS IN THE NORTH WHERE IT
IS WARMER, GOING TO SCHOOL AND
SCHOOL IS MADE OF STICKS AND
MUD, A LOT OF THE FAMILIES, THE
REALLY POOR NEIGHBORHOODS HAD
TO CANCEL SCHOOL FOR WEEKS AND
MONTHS BECAUSE OF GUNFIRE,
ILLITERACY WAS ON THE RISE AND
THE SOLUTION FROM BOLSONARO'S
POINT OF VIEW WAS GET RID OF
THE GARBAGE IN THE EDUCATIONAL
SYSTEM AND THERE'S A LOT --
PEOPLE DIDN'T LIKE THE
CORRUPTION.
THEY WANTED PRIVATIZATION AS A
WAY OF SOLVING THAT.
THE MURDER RATE WAS 6 TIMES
THAT OF THE UNITED STATES AND
THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH FOR
TEENAGERS, THIS MUST ALGER FOR
TIME OF LAW AND ORDER AND
ECONOMIC DEPRESSION, PEOPLE
HAVING DIFFICULTY OBTAINING
FOOD, SHELTER, BASIC NEEDS,
UNEMPLOYMENT, EXTREME POVERTY
WAS A, HEALTHCARE, IS THIS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT YOU WERE
SEEN BY THE TIME YOU LEFT
BRAZIL, PRECEDING THE ELECTION
OF BOLSONARO?
ALL PROGRAMS AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT -- WAS STARTING
TO UNRAVEL?
KNOW.
FIRST OF ALL WHAT YOU DESCRIBED
WAS NOT AN ABERRANT BRAZILIAN.
THIS IS THE REALLY DESPERATE
CLASSES.
BRAZIL IS A MIDDLE-CLASS
COUNTRY.
IT DOES HAVE EXTREME POLES OF
INEQUALITY AND YOU CAN FIND
THAT POVERTY IN BRAZIL IN THE
NORTHEAST AND THE LARGER
CITIES.
THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC
CHALLENGES, SECURITY CHALLENGES
AND POLITICAL GRIPES BUT BRAZIL
IS A VERY DIFFERENT COUNTRY
FROM WHAT YOU DESCRIBE.
THE MOST DRAMATIC RECESSION
RECORDED IN HISTORY.
WHAT YOU WOULD THAT HAVE
HAPPENED?
WHEN HE WAS IMPEACHED AND IN
THE AFTERMATH.
IT IS ONLY NOW COMING OUT.
IT IS ONLY NOW AT A POINT WHERE
THERE IS A POSITIVE GROWTH
RATES.
IS REBUILDING ITS ECONOMY.
ONE OF THE LARGER CHALLENGES IS
EVEN AS THIS ECONOMY GREW, AT
THE BEGINNING OF PRESIDENT
YOUSSEF'S TERM, BECAME THE
SIXTH LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE
WORLD AND WELL-POSITIONED TO
BECOME THE FIFTH-LARGEST, IT
HAD NOT SEEN A CORRESPONDING
RISE IN PRODUCTIVITY AND
COMPETITIVENESS.
THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY WAS
LARGELY INWARD LOOKING, FOCUSED
ON CONSUMERS AND ITS TRADE IS
LARGELY OUTBACK, RESISTANT TO
OPEN NEEDS MARKETS BECAUSE OF
LACK OF PRODUCTIVITY AND LACK
OF COMPETITIVENESS IN KEY AREAS
WE SHOULD HAD REAL INDUSTRY, IN
THE BUILDING OF LITIGATION
AIRCRAFT.
IT IS NOW AT A POINT WHERE IT
HAS POSITIVE GROWTH AGAIN,
ATTEMPTING TO TAKE SIGNIFICANT
STRUCTURAL FORMS IN ITS
ECONOMY.
AND ONE OF JAIR BOLSONARO'S
MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGES IS
GENERATING ECONOMIC GROWTH, TO
RECUPERATE AND CONTINUE THE
KIND OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENT THAT HAD BEGUN
UNDER PREVIOUS PRESIDENTS.
ONE OF THE REAL PROBLEMS,
HOW IT IS STRUCTURED, HOW A
COUNTRY THAT HAS, IN THE
COUNTS, 25, 26 PARTIES AND THE
ABILITY TO CHANGE PARTIES
OVERNIGHT IS EASY SO WHAT
HAPPENS?
AND THE COALITION STARTS
FALLING APART, THAT IS PART OF
THE CORRUPTION AS WELL.
NEPOTISM COMES INTO IT.
AND TO BE PART OF THE
COALITION, THERE HAVE BEEN
VARIOUS ATTEMPTS TO BRING
SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS IN TO
THE SYSTEM BECAUSE THEY VOTE BY
PARTY LISTS WHICH INCREASES THE
NUMBER OF PARTIES OR USE THE
GERMAN SYSTEM WHERE YOU HAVE A
MIXED SYSTEM OF SINGLE-MEMBER
LISTS, THEY ARE TIED TO THE
PERSON WHO IS ELECTED.
IF YOU GO TO BRAZIL NOW AND SAY
WHO IS YOUR REPRESENTATIVE,
THEY CAN'T TELL YOU.
THEY CAN TELL YOU ALL THE
PEOPLE WHO WERE ELECTED, THREE
SENATORS, THERE'S NO REAL
RESPONSIBILITY.
IT HAS BEEN TRIED.
I DON'T KNOW WHETHER BOLSONARO
WILL TRY TO GO FOR THAT.
AND THAT SYSTEM HAS CHANGED IN
SOME WAY, I DON'T HAVE IS
OPTIMISTIC A VIEWPOINT OF
BRAZIL MAKING IT INTO EVEN
HIGHER THAN SOMETIMES IN THE
PAST BECAUSE IT BREEDS
CORRUPTION, IT BREEDS NEPOTISM,
IT BREEDS ALL THE THINGS THAT
MAKES GOVERNMENTS UNRESPONSIVE
TO PEOPLE'S NEEDS.
IT IS HARD TO ENVISAGE THIS
WOULD CHANGE DURING BOLSONARO'S
CAREER.
THAT'S NOT HIS AGENDA AT ALL,
BUT ONE COULD HOPE.
I AGREE WITH TOM SHANNON ON
WHAT HAS HAPPENED RECENTLY TO
MAKE ME MORE OPTIMISTIC WHICH
IS A BUNCH OF YOUNG PROSECUTORS
AND YOUNGER JUDGES TO HAVE GONE
AFTER CORRUPTION IN A WAY THAT
HAS NOT ONLY HAD A MARK IN
BRAZIL BUT LATIN AMERICA, YOU
THINK OF THE BIG BRAZILIAN
COMPANY, THEIR TENTACLES HAVE
REACHED ALL OVER LATIN AMERICA.
WE ALL HAVE KNOWN IF YOU
WERE TO LET AMERICA AND ARE
PROMOTING US BUSINESS INTERESTS
OVERSEAS, YOU KNOW FOR A FACT
THAT IT HAS BEEN THERE BEFORE
YOU AND PAID LOTS OF PEOPLE
OFF.
YOU CAN'T PUT YOUR FINGER ON IT
BUT YOU KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING.
THERE IS A LOT MORE JUSTICE OUT
THERE AND YOU CAN SAY TO
PRESIDENTS AND MINISTERS WHO
ARE HAVING BIDS ON PUBLIC WORKS
THAT OUR PEOPLE KEEP YOU OUT OF
TROUBLE.
OUR PEOPLE HAVE TO ABIDE BY
SENATE RULES THAT OTHER
COUNTRIES DON'T.
THIS ALL SOUNDS GREAT.
WE HAVE A LOT OF THE SAME, A
LOT OF THE REALLY GOOD THINGS
IN TERMS OF THE GUARANTEED
INCOME.
WHAT HAPPENS IS BOLSONARO IS
ELECTED.
WHY?
THAT'S WHAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.
WHY IS JAIR BOLSONARO ELECTED?
WHAT DOES JOSE LIKE ABOUT
JAIR BOLSONARO?
I NEVER RAN INTO BOLSONARO.
DID YOU?
WAS HE PROMINENT?
I DID RUN INTO HIM BUT HE
SPENT 27 YEARS IN THE BRAZILIAN
LEGISLATURE AND WAS CONSIDERED
A CHARACTER OF SORTS.
HE WAS NOT A POLITICAL FIGURE
OF GREAT IMPORT WHICH IS WHY HE
HAS DONE SO WELL.
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE
CORRUPTION SCANDALS AND THE
MIDDLE CLASS RAGE OVER
CORRUPTION, THE LINKAGE BETWEEN
BRAZIL'S POLITICAL CLASS AND
THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE, THE LACK
OF TRUST AND CONFIDENCE WAS
DRAMATIC.
IN SOME WAYS IT WAS A POLITICAL
JONESTOWN FROM BRAZIL.
THE WHOLE SCANS ALL --
THIS OPENS, THIS OPENS A
SPACE FOR NONTRADITIONAL
POLITICIANS, ESPECIALLY SOMEONE
LIKE JAIR BOLSONARO WHO WAS
TALKING ABOUT LAW AND ORDER,
FIGHTING CORRUPTION AND TAKING
AWAY THE IDEA THAT WHAT HE
CONSIDERED AN IDEOLOGICAL BASIS
LEFT HIS TENDENCIES IN
BRAZILIAN POLITICS AND HE WAS
ABLE TO EMERGE AS A CLEAR
ALTERNATIVE TO TRADITIONAL
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AND
ALLOWED HIM TO WIN THE
ELECTION.
WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS IT
WASN'T SO MUCH ECONOMIC AS IT
WAS POLITICAL.
LET'S WIPE THE SLATE CLEAN.
DRAIN THE SWAMP SO TO SPEAK.
I THINK THAT IS ABSOLUTELY
RIGHT.
WAS VERY SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
PART?
THAT'S WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO
UNDERSTAND BETTER.
I HAVEN'T BEEN THERE A
WHILE.
I TOOK A GROUP OF PEOPLE TO
BRAZIL FOR A FEW DAYS IN ONE OF
OUR PROGRAMS AND TALKS WITH
REGULAR BRAZILIANS, SOME OF THE
NGOs.
THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE FELL AT
SOME POINT AND WHEN THIS GETS
EXPOSED EVERYBODY THOUGHT ABOUT
IT.
THE MAYOR OF SAN PAOLO, THEY
SAY HE ROBS BUT EVERYBODY KNEW
IT.
ALL HIS MONEY WAS STASHED IN
SWISS BANKS.
I HAD HIM OFF THE PAPERS.
I DON'T KNOW IF HE WAS PART
OF THE PANAMA PAPERS SITUATION
BUT IN FACT IT BECAME CLEAR, IT
BECAME PUBLIC HE HAD BEEN
STEALING THIS MONEY.
A VERY CHARMING RASCAL MANY
TIMES AND HE RAN SOME POWER, HE
WAS A MAYOR DALEY OF SAN PAOLO,
SO I THINK WE BOTH AGREE THE
BRAZILIAN PEOPLE, BECAUSE THE
STUFF WAS EXPOSED, THEY WERE
SET UP OF THE CLASS, A GUY LIKE
THAT MIGHT BE SAYING SIMILAR
THINGS.
SOCIAL SCIENTISTS HAVE TRIED
TO FIGURE OUT WHAT GIVES RISE
IN AN ELECTORATE TO STRONG MEN
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
DEMOCRATIC PROCESS TO GET
ELECTED AND TRYING WHAT THEY
CAN DO TO AT THIS RATE THE SAME
PROCESS BUT GOT THEM ELECTED.
WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING ERDOGAN
IN TURKEY OR VLADIMIR PUTIN,
POLAND UNFORTUNATELY, MADURO,
CHAVEZ, THE ECONOMIC
EXPLANATION OF PEOPLE BEING
LEFT BEHIND ECONOMICALLY IS
COMPLETELY INSUFFICIENT TO
REALLY DESCRIBE THE PHENOMENON.
IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS MORE
SOCIAL, MORE POLITICAL, MORE
VALUE LADEN THEN IT GIVES RISE
TO A SIMPLE, YOU ARE
MARGINALIZED ECONOMICALLY SO
YOU'RE DESPERATE AND GOING TO
GO WITH WHOMEVER.
IS THAT HAPPENING?
BESIDES THE CORRUPTION THING,
YOU HAVE BOLSONARO WHO IS
PROMOTING GUN RIGHTS IN A
COUNTRY THAT DOES NOT HAVE A
GUN CULTURE.
HE HAS SAID HORRIBLE THINGS
ABOUT THE INDIGENOUS,
PARASITES, HOMOSEXUALS, RATHER
HAVE MY SON DIE IN AUTOMOBILE
ACCIDENT.
HE GOES OVER THE TOP, HE HAS A
PRETTY GOOD APPROVAL RATING.
IT MAY SOUND FAMILIAR TO SOME
OF US HERE.
WHAT IS THAT ALL ABOUT?
THE SAME IN BRAZIL AS IT IS
HERE.
VOTERS ARE DISCERNING, VOTERS
ARE SMART, VOTERS KNOW WHAT
THEY WANT AND HOW TO FILTER OUT
STUFF THEY DON'T CONSIDER
IMPORTANT.
FOR BRAZILIAN VOTERS WHAT WAS
IMPORTANT WAS GETTING THE
ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK, FIGHTING
CRIME, FIGHTING CORRUPTION AND
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT REORIENTING
THE COUNTRY INTERNATIONALLY AND
TRYING TO BUILD A BETTER
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED
STATES.
BOLSONARO HAD ALL KINDS OF
OTHER STUFF GOING ON AROUND HIM
THE SAME WAY OUR PRESIDENT HAS
ALL KINDS OF OTHER STUFF GOING
ON AROUND HIM BUT FOR VOTERS
WHO WANTED A CLEAR PATHWAY
FORWARD HE OFFERED IT AND HE
OFFERED SOMETHING THAT WAS
DISTANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
OPPOSING CANDIDATE WAS OFFERING
AT THE TIME, AND IN THIS
REGARD, THE BRAZILIANS SHOWED
THEY WERE PREPARED TO PUT UP
WITH THE OTHER RHETORIC IF
PRESIDENT BOLSONARO WAS
PREPARED TO FOCUS ON THE
PRIMARY PURPOSE OF HIS CAMPAIGN
AND WHAT YOU WILL FIND IS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HE WILL BE A STRONG
MAN.
THE THING ABOUT BRAZIL, IT IS
THE BIG BLOB.
IT TAKES YOU IN AND HAVE REVIEW
BECAUSE IT IS SUCH A LARGE
COUNTRY, SO DIVERSE, SO DYNAMIC
IN A FEDERAL STATE AND THE
STATE ARE IMPORTANT, THE
GOVERNORS ARE IMPORTANT AND HE
STILL HAS A PARTY WHICH, WHILE
IT HAS LEVERAGE IN THE
LEGISLATURE AND HAS POPULARITY,
THE BIGGEST LEGISLATIVE
CHALLENGE WHICH IS PENSION
REFORM IS PUSHING THROUGH THE
ASSEMBLY AND IT IS BEING DONE
SO HE GET SOME OF WHAT HE WANTS
BUT NOT ALL OF WHAT HE WENTS.
AS HE GETS DEEPER INTO HIS
PRESIDENCY, THE BRAZILIANS WANT
HIM TO FOCUS ON THE THREE OR
FOUR CORE INTERESTS THAT MATTER
TO THEM AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
HE BEGINS FOCUSING ELSEWHERE,
THE SOCIAL RHETORIC OR
ENVIRONMENTAL RHETORIC IS GOING
TO LEAD TO GREATER TENSION
WITHIN HIS GOVERNMENT AND
GREATER CONCERNS AMONG
BRAZILIANS AND DISSIPATE HIS
ENERGY.
MY HOPE IS HE CAN DISCIPLINE
AND FOCUS BECAUSE BRAZIL
DOESN'T HAVE ANY OPTIONS.
FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS GUY HAS TO
BE SUCCESSFUL.
IF HE IS NOT SUCCESSFUL WE WILL
HAVE A BRAZIL WHICH WILL BE A
TOUGHER PLACE OVER THE NEXT
BUNCH OF YEARS AND NOT BE AS
HELPFUL TO US AS WE TRIED TO
BUILD A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH
HIM.
Ambassador Romero: LET'S
TURN TO THE TITLE, US --
"US/BRAZIL BROMANCE: WHAT'S IN
STORE FOR US?".
I DON'T KNOW IF ANY OF YOU
CAUGHT THE MEETING BETWEEN
DONALD TRUMP AND PRESIDENT
BOLSONARO.
THEY SEEM TO BE KINDRED SPIRITS
IN MANY WAYS.
THERE SMARMY SMILES ARE
DIFFERENT.
THEY DON'T SMILE THE SAME WAY.
THEY ARE DIABOLICAL PERHAPS BUT
DIFFERENTLY.
AS A SIDE NOTE.
A GREAT MEETING AND THE THREE
OF US NEXT DIPLOMATS WILL ALL
TELL YOU THAT WORKING WITH THE
BRAZILIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY WAS
NEVER EASY.
TOO MANY CASES I FOUND THAT
BRAZILIAN DIPLOMATS VIEWED ANY
GAINS IN THE UNITED STATES AS A
NET LOSS FOR THEM, A 0-SUM
GAME.
BUT NOW BOLSONARO IS CHANGING
THAT -- TO COOPERATE ON
VENEZUELA AT THE UN ON
STRATEGIC THINGS, HE IS OPENING
UP THE BRAZILIAN SPACE CENTER
FOR US COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES.
THE GROUND SEEMS TO BE OPEN FOR
MORE COOPERATION AND YOU DON'T
SEE THE ANTI-US AND ITS
ASCENDANCY THAT YOU SEE IN THE
BRAZILIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY ALL
THE TIME.
DO WE SAY THAT IS ENOUGH?
THAT'S GOOD FOR US?
BRAZILIAN DIPLOMATS ARE AS
WELL-TRAINED AS ANY DIPLOMATIC
CORPS I EVER DEALT WITH IN MY
CAREER.
AND THE MOST HIGHLY PAID BY
THE WAY.
QUITE WELL-PAID AND THE 25
YEARS FROM WHEN I WAS FIRST IN
BRAZIL AND WHEN I WAS
AMBASSADOR TO BRAZIL SOME OF
THE NAMES WITH THE SAME BECAUSE
THE SONS OF THE ORIGINAL
FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICERS WERE
COMING IN.
A LOT OF IT, THE RUSSIANS HAVE
A NICE EXPRESSION, SO WHEN
CARDOZA CAME IN.
AND THE BEARDED ONES, IN THE
FOREIGN MINISTRY IT CHANGED
CONSIDERABLY.
OUR ABILITY TO TALK WITH THEM
IN A REASONABLE WAY TO TRY TO
GET COOPERATION WITH THE
BRAZILIANS AT THE UN, THE WTO,
WE ALWAYS HAD PROBLEMS BUT IT
CHANGED CONSIDERABLY.
IT DEPENDS ON HOW THE FOREIGN
MINISTRY IS STRUCTURED AND HOW
HE AND HIS FOREIGN MINISTER
WANT THE FOREIGN MINISTRY TO
OPERATE.
THEY CAN'T OPERATE ON THEIR OWN
IN A SORT OF NATIONALISTIC OR
ANTI-AMERICAN WAY.
IT HAS TO COME FROM THE
PRESIDENT AND FOREIGN MINISTER.
I THINK PROBABLY WE WILL HAVE
LOTS OF OPPORTUNITY.
I TALKED TO SOME BRAZILIAN
JOURNALISTS IN BRAZIL IS NOT A
COUNTRY THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT
WAKES UP AND FIX ABOUT FIRST
THING IN THE MORNING.
UNLESS THERE'S A CRISIS IN THE
BRAZIL IT'S NOT AT THE TOP OF
THE PRIORITY LIST.
WE WILL SEE.
THE RELATIONSHIP IS GOING TO BE
BETTER BUT I'M NOT SURE HOW FAR
OR HOW IMPORTANT IT WILL BE IN
TERMS OF WORLD AFFAIRS.
THIS GUY WHO IS FOREIGN
MINISTER.
ERNEST ARAUJO O WAS PLUCKED OUT
OF THE MID-RANKS AND ELEVATED
TO THE CONCIERGE OF THE FOREIGN
MINISTER.
IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO GET IN
LINE WITH BOLSONARO AND BECOME
MORE PROACTIVE AND POSITIVE AS
RELATES TO THE UNITED STATES?
WE ARE GOING TO FIND OUT.
ERNESTO WAS THE NUMBER 2 FELLOW
AT THE BRAZILIAN EMBASSY IN
WASHINGTON FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
HE IS A GOOD DIPLOMAT BUT HE
WAS HEAD OF NORTH AMERICAN
AFFAIRS WHEN HE WAS ELEVATED TO
BE FOREIGN MINISTER AND THAT IS
UNUSUAL IN BRAZIL'S FOREIGN
MINISTRY STRUCTURE BUT HE CAN
TAKE CREDIT FOR SUCCESSFUL
VISIT BY PRESIDENT BOLSONARO TO
WASHINGTON.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS IT
WAS SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS OR BOTH
SIDES.
BRAZIL GOT A FAIR BIT OUT OF
IT.
SOME OF THE IMPORTANCE
SYMBOLICALLY SUCH AS SUPPORT
FOR BRAZIL AT ADMISSION TO THE
O
OBC ED WHICH IS TYPICAL OF
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, TO BRING
BRAZIL INTO THAT ENVIRONMENT
WAS ALMOST AS BIG AS BRAZIL
ENTERING BRICKS.
BECAUSE OF ITS MAJOR NON-NATO
ALLY STATUS WHICH GAVE BRAZIL
THE FRONT OF THE LINE WITH OUR
NATO ALLIES WHEN IT COMES TO
PURCHASING MILITARY EQUIPMENT
AND CERTAIN KINDS OF
COOPERATION AND INTELLIGENCE
SHARING, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY
THE TECHNICAL SAFEGUARDS, DONE
BY BRAZIL IN THE UNITED STATES
TO ALLOW THE SHARING OF CERTAIN
KINDS OF SENSITIVE TECHNOLOGY
AND INFORMATION RELATED TO
SPACE LAUNCH AND THIS WILL
ALLOW US COMPANIES AMONG OTHERS
TO USE THEIR BRAZIL SPACE
LAUNCH FACILITY TO LAUNCH
SATELLITES AND THIS IS A BIG
DEAL BECAUSE IT IS AN EDITORIAL
LAUNCH SITE, MUCH BETTER LUNCH
SITE THAN CAPE CANAVERAL.
IT IS CHEAPER FOR AMERICAN
COMPANIES BUT WILL OPEN A SPACE
FOR THE UNITED STATES AND
BRAZIL TO COOPERATE ON SPACE
TECHNOLOGIES WHICH ARE
INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC
MISSILE TECHNOLOGIES AND THIS
IS SOMETHING OUR
NONPROLIFERATION PEOPLE WORK
JEALOUSLY TO GUARD.
THE FACT THIS ADMINISTRATION
WAS ABLE TO OPEN THAT DOOR TO
BRAZILIANS WAS A PRETTY
REMARKABLE STEP.
IN THIS MOMENT WE HAD A GOOD
START IN TERMS OF PERSONAL
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE TWO
PRESIDENTS.
THE VISIT ITSELF ACCOMPLISHED
SOME IMPORTANT FIRST STEPS IN
BUILDING THE RELATIONSHIP.
THE TRICK IS TO GET OUR
BUREAUCRACIES TO WORK TOGETHER
ON THEM AND THAT IS WHERE THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE.
THAT IS WHERE WE MIGHT
ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE AND THAT
IS WHERE PEOPLE LIKE THE
FOREIGN MINISTER ARE INVOLVED.
THERE WAS ONE NOT VERY
WIDELY KNOWN THINGS THAT
HAPPENED THAT IS QUITE
INTERESTING.
BOLSONARO EXPLORING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A CUSTOMS UNION,
YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO DO
BILATERAL TRADE DEALS.
I LEARNED THAT THE HARD WAY
WITH CHILE.
IS TRYING TO CHANGE THAT
BECAUSE HE WANTS TO DO A DEAL
WITH THE UNITED STATES,
PRESUMABLY.
WE HAD THE FREE-TRADE AREA
OF THE AMERICAS IF YOU WILL
RECALL WHICH WAS A CLINTON
VISION OF THE FREE-TRADE AREA
THROUGHOUT ALL THE AMERICAS
FROM CANADA TO CHILE.
WE'VE DONE A LOT BILATERALLY
OVER THE YEARS BUT BACK THEN
WAS SUPPOSED TO BE ONE HUGE
TRADE ZONE WHICH WOULD BE THE
BIGGEST TRADE AGREEMENT IN THE
WORLD AND BRAZIL DID EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE TO STOP IT.
THEY DIDN'T WANT IT TO HAPPEN
BECAUSE THE 0-SUM GAME.
OF THE UNITED STATES IS LEADING
THIS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
INTEREST BUT THEIR GAIN IS OUR
LOSS.
IT IS A REFLECTION OF THE TIME.
THE UNITED STATES WOULD
DOMINATE THE ECONOMIC
SITUATION.
THE ECONOMY IS SO DOMINATING
FOR BRAZIL IN TERMS OF PRODUCT.
WHEN I WAS FIRST IN BRAZIL IT
WAS COFFEE COFFEE COFFEE IN THE
60s.
WHEN I WENT BACK THE SECOND
TIME THIS HELD ON, AUTOMOBILE
PARTS.
ON THE SHORT RANGE AIRCRAFT,
MIGHT HAVE BEEN BUILT BY
EMPIRE.
THAT TOOK A BIG JUMP AND
SOYBEANS, AGRIBUSINESS.
THEY ARE DIVERSIFIED.
THEY HAD COMPETITORS IN A
CERTAIN WAY AND OTHER AREAS
WHERE WE CAN COOPERATE IN
BRAZIL.
JAYCOB MEGNA OF OPENING THE
DOOR TO THAT.
YOU DON'T SEE BOLSONARO
THREATENING DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS IN BRAZIL OR
SUCCEEDING?
BRAZIL'S DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS CAN TAKE CARE OF
THEMSELVES AND THE BRAZILIAN
PEOPLE ARE COMMITTED TO THOSE
INSTITUTIONS WHICH DOESN'T MEAN
BOLSONARO MIGHT NOT MAKE
HEADWAY IN SOME AREAS WE FIND
UNCOMFORTABLE.
WE HAVE A STRONG SET UP FOR THE
RELATIONSHIP.
WE HAVE TO WORK ON MAKING THAT
REAL.
IN THE PROCESS, WHAT THE
PRESIDENT SAYS WILL AFFECT THE
TONE OF THE RELATIONSHIP.
IF HE CONTINUES TO ATTACK THE
LGBT QUEUE POPULATION, THE
ECONOMY OF INDIGENOUS PEOPLE
AND PROTECTION OF INDIGENOUS
PEOPLE, IF HE THREATENS THE
WELL-BEING OF THE AMAZON AND
DIVERSE CITY THIS WILL GENERATE
A RESPONSE IN THE UNITED STATES
THAT WILL MAKE THE RELATIONSHIP
HARDER AND THAT WILL NOT HELP
HIM.
BEGIN TO CHALLENGE THE SUPPORT
SOME PEOPLE ARE PREPARED TO
GIVE INTERNALLY.
MY HOPE IS -- I'M CONFIDENT
ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS.
DO YOU WANT TO DO QUESTIONS?
ANY QUESTIONS?
THANKS.
I APPRECIATE YOUR COMMENTS, THE
QUESTIONS ABOUT BRAZIL'S
FOREIGN-POLICY, THE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED
STATES, IN THIS COUNTRY, IN THE
US, TRUMP'S BREAD OF POPULIST
NATIONALISM HAS A CONNECTION TO
A JACKSONIAN FOREIGN-POLICY
THAT EMPHASIZES MILITARY POWER
AND RETREAT FROM ENGAGEMENT
WITH INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTIONS.
DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE SOME OTHER
MANIFESTATIONS IN BRAZIL'S
FOREIGN-POLICY, WITH YOU AND
LINKED BODIES?
TALKING ABOUT MILITARY
INTERVENTION IN VENEZUELA,
BRAZIL WOULD BE A NATURAL, I
DON'T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN AND
THERE WON'T BE PUSHED BACK FROM
MILITARY GETTING INVOLVED IN
THAT WAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
KIND OF FOREIGN-POLICY
BOLSONARO WILL HAVE.
IT WILL BE VERY ANXIOUS TO BE A
PARTNER WITH THE UNITED STATES.
HE LIKES TRUMP AND THE FACT
THAT TRUMP IS SORT OF PRESSING
DEMOCRACY TO GET MORE POWER AS
WE MENTIONED, A NUMBER OF OTHER
DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED LEADERS
AROUND THE WORLD HAVE BECOME
MORE AUTOCRATIC.
THAT IS A NATURAL TENDENCY BUT
AS TOM SAID HE WILL BE STYMIED
BY THE BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF
DEMOCRACY.
PRESS IS FREE IN BRAZIL, IT IS
IRRESPONSIBLY FREE.
IN THE WHITE HOUSE MEETING,
BECAUSE BOLSONARO STARTED BY
TALKING ABOUT FAKE NEWS IN
BRAZIL.
THAT RING DONALD TRUMP'S CHIMES
RIGHT AWAY.
TWO PEAS IN A POD.
I WANTED TO SAY SOMETHING.
LET ME SAY I HAVE A DIFFERENT
RELATIONSHIP TO BRAZIL THAN THE
ONE YOU HAVE ALL EXPRESSED
BECAUSE -- I REMEMBER AMERICAN
STUDIES, I DO MOST OF MY
RESEARCH IN MEXICO, VENEZUELA,
IT IS NOT BRAZIL BUT I HAVE THE
RELATIONSHIP THAT HAS TO DO
WITH BRAZIL.
WHEN I WAS IN GRADUATE SCHOOL
WE HAD A LOT OF BRAZILIANS AT
THE TIME AND MY FIRST JOB WAS
IN ST. LOUIS AND THERE WERE A
NUMBER OF BRAZILIANS ON THE
FACULTY.
AND CHICAGO IT WAS MOSTLY
GRADUATE SCHOOLS.
THESE FOLKS WERE REFUGEES AND
EXILES AND CHILDREN OF THE
PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN EXILED
DURING THE MILITARY JUNTA.
IT DOESN'T SURPRISE ME WHEN YOU
SAY BRAZILIANS ARE COMMITTED TO
DEMOCRACY BECAUSE ALL THE
PEOPLE I KNEW HAD LIVED THROUGH
THE HARDSHIPS OF THE YEAR, THEY
WOULD NOT WANT ANY RETURN TO
THAT.
SO YOU PRESERVE DEMOCRACY IN
BRAZIL WHETHER IT IS RIGHT OR
LEFT.
THEY PICKED UP A LOT OF VALUES
WITH RESPECT TO DEMOCRATIC
SOCIALISM, PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN
PART OF THE GUERRILLAS
ESPOUSING ARMED CONFLICT DURING
THE YEARS OF THE MILITARY AND
WENT TO POLAND WITH MY GOOD
FRIENDS WENT TO POLAND THINKING
HE WOULD BECOME A COMMUNIST AND
GO BACK TO BRAZIL BECOMING A
REAL COMMUNIST AND HE SAID HE
STARTED HAVING NIGHTMARES EVERY
NIGHT WHEN HE LIVED IN A REAL
COMMUNIST SOCIETY AND LITTLE BY
LITTLE BECAME A SOCIALIST.
I THINK BRAZIL IS A PLACE WHERE
THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE, ONE
OF THOSE PEOPLE WAS MENDOZA,
AND EXILE OF THOSE YEARS.
I THINK THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM
IN BRAZIL IN THAT VAST
MIDDLE-CLASS YOU ARE TALKING
ABOUT BECAUSE PEOPLE DID RETURN
AND DID GO BACK AND ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES.
I THINK IT IS A RICH POLITICAL
SPECTRUM.
I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THEM
POLITICALLY THAN I HAVE IN
AMERICANS WHO HAVE NOT LIVED IN
EXTREME SITUATIONS.
IT IS INTERESTING JUST
BEFORE I CAME HERE, I READ THAT
BOLSONARO FIRED HIS MINISTER OF
EDUCATION BECAUSE THE MINISTER
OF EDUCATION HAD DICTATED THAT
THEY WOULD REMOVE THE NEGATIVE
REFERENCES THE 20 YEAR MILITARY
DICTATORSHIP.
APPARENTLY ALL THE
SCHOOLCHILDREN IN BRAZIL WOULD
READ THE NEGATIVE PARTS OF
MILITARY DICTATORSHIP WHICH WAS
OBVIOUS BUT HE DEMANDED ALL OF
THAT BE REMOVED.
THERE WAS SO MUCH PUSHBACK.
THIS GOES BACK TO WHAT TOM WAS
SAYING, THEY FIRMLY BELIEVE
BRAZIL DEMOCRACY WILL SURVIVE,
SO MUCH PUSHBACK BY TEACHERS
AND PARENTS THAT THIS WAS BEING
OVERLOOKED, OR IN SOME WAY
HAVING A SHINY GLOSS PUT ON
WHEN IT WASN'T THAT HE WAS
FORCED TO RESIGN.
AT THE END OF THE DAY YOU MAY
BE RIGHT.
THE EDUCATION SYSTEM FOR
EXAMPLE.
TELL ME IF THIS HAS CHANGED IN
THAT PERIOD OF TIME.
WE HAD WHEN PRESIDENT CLINTON
CAME, A COUNTRY TO COUNTRY
EDUCATION AGREEMENT.
ONE OF THE THINGS OUR PEOPLE
FOUND OUT WAS A STRANGE PART OF
THE SYSTEM.
IF YOU WERE A RICH PERSON YOU
WOULD SEND YOUR KIDS TO A
PRIVATE SCHOOL AND INEVITABLY
THEY WOULD BE ELECTED TO A FREE
PUBLIC UNIVERSITY WHICH ARE THE
BEST ONES.
THEY ARE FREE, NO TUITION.
THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY HAS
TUITION.
IF YOU WERE POOR YOU SEND YOUR
KID TO A NOT VERY GOOD PUBLIC
SCHOOL AND COULDN'T GET INTO A
FREE PUBLIC UNIVERSITY UNLESS
YOU SACRIFICED AND SCROUNGED UP
THE MONEY TO SEND THEM TO A
UNIVERSITY WHERE YOU PAY
TUITION.
I REMEMBER THE EDUCATION
MINISTER WAS INTENT ON TRYING
TO CHANGE THE SYSTEM BECAUSE IT
PERPETUATED THE RICH ELITE AND
DIDN'T ALLOW MUCH MOVEMENT
UPWARDS.
I DON'T KNOW WHETHER THAT HAS
CHANGED.
I HAVEN'T SEEN THE NEWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS CHANGED BUT THAT
IS AN IMPORTANT PART ALSO OF
THIS RISING MIDDLE CLASS, YOU
NEED EDUCATION TO BREAKOUT OF
THE CLASS THEY APPEALED TO.
TOM.
YOU THINK HISTORY WILL BE KIND
TO LULA?
I DO.
I THINK IT WILL BE KINDER TO
CARDOZA BECAUSE OF WHAT HE DID
BUT I BELIEVE IN SOME WAYS,
LULA'S ACCOMPLISHMENTS WILL BE
SEEN AS EXPANDING THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE WHO BENEFIT FROM THE
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY, THE
DRESSING, THE ISSUE OF EXTREME
POVERTY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF BRAZIL.
AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT HE
INOCULATED BRAZIL AGAINST THE
KIND OF POPULISM WE WERE SEEING
IN VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA AND
ECUADOR AND ARGENTINA.
AND CLUNG TO THE ECONOMIC
POLICY AND APPROACHES THAT
CARDOZA PUT IN PLACE AND
CREATED ENOUGH CONTINUITY OF
POLICY TO ALLOW THE ECONOMY TO
CONTINUE TO GROW.
THERE WILL BE ANY NUMBER OF
CRITICISMS OF HIM AS ANY
PRESIDENT HAS TO ENDURE, BUT I
THINK HE WILL BE SEEN AS
SOMEONE WHO WAS ABLE TO INSURE
THAT BRAZIL DIDN'T FALL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE KIND OF
POPULISM WE SAW IN SOUTH
AMERICA.
WHEN I GOT TO BRAZIL IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ELECTION
CAMPAIGN, WHAT IF WE MEET WITH
SOME OF THE CANDIDATES NOT TO
SAY ANYTHING POLITICAL BUT JUST
TO GET TO KNOW THEM AND SEE
WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY?
I MET WITH ALMOST EVERY ONE OF
THE CANDIDATES EXCEPT FOR LULA.
AFTER HE WAS DEFEATED, I SAID
SEE IF LULA WILL COME TO THE
RESIDENCE FOR LUNCH SOMETIME
AND HE DID AND HE BROUGHT HIS
PEOPLE WITH THEM AND HERE'S
THIS ROUGH AND TUMBLE GUY WITH
A FEW FINGERS MISSING FROM
HAVING WORKED IN THE FACTORY.
HE WAS A MACHINE OPERATOR.
HE WAS A GOOD LISTENER.
HE DIDN'T SAY TOO MUCH BUT HE
DIDN'T HAVE TO BE IDEOLOGICAL
AT THE TIME.
THE GOVERNMENT WAS INTERESTED.
MY IMPRESSION OF LULA WAS QUITE
POSITIVE.
THE IMPRESSION OF HIM BEFORE IN
THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT'S EYES,
HE WAS GOING TO RENOUNCE THE
DEBT, BE ANTI-AMERICAN AND DO
ALL THESE BAD THINGS SO THERE
WAS SOME FEAR, TOM WAS RIGHT,
HE WAS SMART ENOUGH TO FIGURE
OUT HE NEEDED TO TAKE WHAT WAS
GOOD AND WHAT WAS LEFT TO HIM
AND PRESERVE IT AND ADD ON TO
IT WHICH HE DID IN THE SOCIAL
SIDE, ONE OF THE FIRST THING HE
DID WAS HIRE A FINANCE MINISTER
WHO IS PRESIDENT OF THE BANK OF
BOSTON IN BRAZIL.
THEY WERE ABLE TO KEEP
INFLATION DOWN, DIDN'T
UNDERSTAND.
HE WAS A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH
REALLY.
AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY
GET HIM ON BOGUS CHARGES.
WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE SCOPE
AND AMOUNT OF MONEY INVOLVED
WITH THE CAR WASH SCANDAL, AND
ALL OF THAT.
THEY GOT HIM ON A COUPLE
HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS WORTH
OF SERVICES AND CONSTRUCTION
MONEY AND REFURBISHING A CONDO
ON THE BEACH.
PRESIDENT CLINTON WAS
IMPEACHED BY CONGRESS BECAUSE
HE HAD AN AFFAIR WITH A YOUNG
PERSON.
THAT WAS NOT A HUGE THEFT OF
GOVERNMENT -- OF LEADERS DON'T
THINK TO THEMSELVES WHAT IS MY
LEGACY GOING TO BE, THIS
HAPPENS.
YOU SAY IT IS A SMALL THING BUT
YOU DON'T EXPECT THAT OF THE
PRESIDENT OF A COUNTRY.
THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED TO LULA
AND HE WAS BEING MADE AN
EXAMPLE OF.
THE PROSECUTORS, THE JUDGES
THAT WERE DOING THIS WERE IN
THE MOOD TO BRING THIS TO
PUBLIC ATTENTION, CONVICT
PEOPLE, PUT THEM IN JAIL FOR
WHATEVER CRIMES THEY COMMIT AND
THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH LULA
ALONG WITH SOME WHO HAD TAKEN
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
WE HAVE A COUPLE QUESTIONS.
MY NAME IS CHRISTIAN.
I'M A GRADUATE STUDENT,
INCOMING PUBLIC POLICY STUDENT
NEXT YEAR.
SO MY QUESTION IS RELATED TO
THE SCANDAL, I AM FROM
ARGENTINA, IT WAS A BIG DEAL,
PERU'S POLITICAL INSTITUTION,
SEVERAL PRESIDENTS WERE
INVOLVED AND THERE WAS A MONEY
TRAIL INVOLVED IN THAT.
GIVEN THE SITUATION THAT HAS
HAPPENED OUT OF THAT AND A LOT
OF PEOPLE ARE VERY FRUSTRATED
WITH THE POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
IN SEVERAL SOUTH AMERICAN
COUNTRIES SUCH AS PERU, SOME
PLACES IN ARGENTINA AND ALL THE
PLAYERS, DO YOU THINK HIS
ELECTION COULD CAUSE A RIPPLE
EFFECT IN TERMS OF THE RISING
POPULISM THAT PEOPLE FEEL THEY
WANT TO MAKE SURE CORRUPTION IS
TACKLED FIRST AND FOREMOST, AND
WOULD THAT DEPEND, HOW WOULD
THAT BE -- YOU MENTIONED IT
DEPENDS ON HOW THE INSTITUTION,
STRONGLY DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS STRONG ENOUGH?
OUR COUNTRY STRONG ENOUGH TO
WITHSTAND SOMETHING LIKE THIS?
GUATEMALA DID.
GUATEMALA CAN DO IT, PERU CAN
DO IT, ARGENTINA CAN DO IT,
CHILE CAN DO IT.
CORRUPTION WILL BE A BIG DEAL
ACROSS MANY ELECTIONS.
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, THERE
ALREADY IS A REORIENTATION OF
SORTS IN SOUTH AMERICA.
BOLSONARO'S ELECTION IS NOT THE
FIRST PART OF THAT.
SOUTH AMERICA WHICH AT ONE
POINT WAS COLORED PINK BECAUSE
OF LEFT OF CENTER OR
PROGRESSIVE GOVERNMENT IS NOT
PINK ANYMORE.
IF YOU LOOK AT BRAZIL,
ARGENTINA, CHILE, PERU,
COLOMBIA, YOU COULD ALMOST PUT
ECUADOR IN THEIR.
IF NOT CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNMENT
TO LEASE GOVERNMENTS THAT HAVE
MOVED AWAY FROM PREVIOUS
PROGRESSIVE IDEOLOGIES AND
APPROACHES.
AS THEY HAVE DONE SO THEY
CREATED I THINK A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOUTH AMERICAN POLITICS TO
MOVE BEYOND IDEOLOGICAL CLAIMS
FOR VOTES AND INCREASINGLY
VOTERS ARE GOING TO BE LOOK NOT
AT IDEOLOGIES BUT
ACCOMPLISHMENT AND TO THE
EXTENT POLITICAL LEADERS AND
POLITICAL PARTIES, THEY HAVE
BEEN REELECTED AND ELECTED, AND
IT IS NO LONGER A CASE OF
PRESENTING YOURSELF AS LEFTIST
CANDIDATE OR RIGHTIST
CANDIDATE.
THE IDEOLOGIES HAVE CORRODED
AND PEOPLE LOST TRUST IN THEM
AND THE LEADERSHIP TO DELIVER
THE GOODS.
DOESN'T RING A BELL AT HOME
HERE?
I AM THE ONLY BRAZILIAN
HERE.
THANK YOU FOR HAVING THIS
EVENT.
I'M HAPPY IT HAPPENED.
I WANTED TO PLAY DEVILS
ADVOCATE AND ASK YOU YOUR
OPINION ON JUDGE MORROW AND THE
CAR WASH.
THE LECTURE THIS AFTERNOON,
LIKE YOU ARE COMPLEMENTED.
IT IS A GOOD THING THAT CAME
OUT OF BRAZIL, THOSE WHO DON'T
KNOW THE MAIN JUDGE, THE
ARCHITECT BEHIND THE OPERATION
IS THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE
WHICH I THINK AT LEAST PUT HIS
REPUTATION AT RISK.
I WANT TO HEAR YOUR VIEWS.
WOULD YOU LIKE TO TALK ABOUT
SERGIO IN PARTICULAR?
HE WAS A JUDGE WHO BEGAN --
BECAME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE
CAR WASH INVESTIGATION, DROVE
INVESTIGATIONS AND ORDERED THE
ARRESTS OF THE MANY PEOPLE WHO
GOT CAUGHT UP IN THIS AND
WORKING WITH FEDERAL POLICE
DEVELOPED ALL THE CASES IN THE
EARLY GOING.
HE HAS BEEN NAMED MINISTER OF
JUSTICE BY PRESIDENT BOLSONARO.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE SOME WHO
WERE VERY CONCERNED THAT HE HAD
ESTABLISHED HIMSELF AS A BEACON
OF POSITIVE ACTION AGAINST
CORRUPTION, ALL THE CURRENT
POWERS THAT BE AND THIS
ULTIMATELY TAINTED IN SOME
FASHION.
THERE ARE CONCERNS PRESIDENT
BOLSONARO, TO POLITICAL ENEMIES
TO REDIRECT CORRUPTION
INVESTIGATIONS.
HE WAS VERY RESPECTED IN THE
UNITED STATES AND ENGAGED WITH
US COUNTERPARTS IN AN
INTELLIGENT WAY.
HE IS ONE OF THE FEW MEMBERS OF
BOLSONARO'S CABINET WHO CANNOT
BE FIRED AND THAT IS A POWERFUL
PLACE TO BE.
IT IS CALLED THE SUPREME
COURT OF THE UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA.
VERY MUCH.
WHAT THIS MEANS, THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE MOVING FROM A
JUDGESHIP, A BIG DEAL AND IT
REQUIRES A LOT OF HELP BUT IF
HE HAS THE RIGHT HELP AROUND
HIM HE HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BEING A HUGELY IMPORTANT
JUSTICE MINISTER,
ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORTS AND TO
BE VERY POSITIVE FOR BRAZIL
GOING FORWARD.
WE HAD TRADITIONALLY A
NUMBER OF BRAZILIAN LAWYERS,
SEVERAL OF THEM, THEY HAVE A
HIGH OPINION.
YOUNG PROSECUTORS AND YOUNG
LAWYERS HAVE A BIT IN THEIR
TEETH, THEY HAVE DRIVEN THIS
AND WHEN YOU GET MOMENTUM IN AN
AREA WHERE CORRUPTION IS BEING
FOUND OUT THINGS SHOULD CHANGE.
I WOULD THINK THAT WOULD BE A
WARNING TO THOSE INSISTING
THERE WOULD BE A TENDENCY TO
SCAN OR WHATEVER IT IS, MAKE
DEALS, PUT THEM ON WARNING THE
GAME HAS CHANGED.
IF YOU THINK OUR GOVERNMENT HAS
CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE
CABINET, PEOPLE LEAVING, PEOPLE
COMING, LOOK AT BRAZIL.
THEY -- WE WILL SEE WITH
BOLSONARO BUT BEFORE MINISTERS
LEAVE, MINISTERS COME AND GO IT
IS LIKE A MERRY-GO-ROUND.
IF THERE IS CONTINUITY, I AGREE
WITH YOU, THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF JUSTICE AND
THE SOCIETY LOOKS AT THE
GOVERNMENT.
I GOT ONE LAST QUESTION AND
THAT IS ARE BOTH OF YOU SAYING
WHAT WE SAY, WHAT MANY PEOPLE
SAY IN THE UNITED STATES WHO
SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP BASICALLY
SAY DON'T REALLY LOOK AT THE
DIVISIVENESS AND RHETORIC, LOOK
AT WHAT HE DOES AND WHAT HE
STANDS FOR.
IN BRAZIL, THE ELECTORATE IN
BRAZIL PRETTY MUCH IF THEY
HAVEN'T ALREADY CONCLUDED THE
SAME THING, THAT BOLSONARO
STANDS FOR ABRUPT CHANGE FROM
THE OLD ORDER, FROM CORRUPTION
ETC..
LET'S NOT WORRY ABOUT COMMENTS
HE MAKES ABOUT THE LGBTQ
COMMUNITY ORIENTED GENEROUS
PEOPLE OR WHATEVER IT MIGHT BE.
LET'S JUST GO WITH THE FACT
THAT HE IS PART OF A CHANGE AND
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIM AS
OUR PRESIDENT BECAUSE OF THE
FACT THAT HE RECOGNIZES THE
PLACE IN HISTORY HIS RIGHT NOW
WITH BRAZIL.
THAT WAS HOW PEOPLE THOUGHT
AS THEY WALKED INTO POLLING
PLACES AND CAST THEIR BALLOTS.
NOW THAT BOLSONARO IS
PRESIDENT, THAT IS GOING TO
INVOLVE.
BRAZIL IS A BIG, DIVERSE
SOCIETY BUT IS STILL FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE, FAIRLY
TRADITIONAL BUT EVEN WITH THAT
CONSERVATISM AND
TRADITIONALISM, IT IS A LIVE
AND LET LIVE COUNTRY.
I JUST DON'T SEE BRAZIL BUYING
IN TO THE SOCIAL RHETORIC OF
THE PRESIDENT.
THAT IS WHY I SAID EARLIER IF
HE WANTS TO BE SUCCESSFUL HE
HAS TO BE DISCIPLINED, ON
ACHIEVING THE CORE ISSUES OR
AREAS OF CONCERN THAT GOT HIM
ELECTED AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
THIS MOMENT IN TIME.
OTHERWISE HE IS GOING TO FIND
HIMSELF TRYING TO IDEOLOGY EYES
BRAZIL IN A DIFFERENT WAY AND I
DON'T THINK IT WILL BE
UNDERSTOOD.
LET ME TURN IT OVER, LET ME
CLOSE BY SAYING AN INCREDIBLE
BRAZILIAN ARTIST AND COMPOSER,
AND ANY OF THESE SONGS YOU
WOULD KNOW, HE FAMOUSLY SAID
BRAZIL IS NOT FOR BEGINNERS AND
WHAT HE MEANT BY THAT IS BRAZIL
IS A COMPLICATED PLACE.
FROM FOOTBALL TO CARNIVAL TO
MUSIC.
IT HAS A DEEP HISTORY TO IT.
I ADDED SOMETHING ELSE WHICH IS
BRAZIL IS NOT FOR SHORT TIMERS.
IT IS NOT FOR HOT MONEY, NOT
FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT POLITICAL
ADVANTAGE.
BRAZIL IS ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS.
IT IS ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS THAT
ENDURE ACROSS A LIFETIME FOR
INDIVIDUALS AND COUNTRIES, AND
WE FIND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO
THIS PERIOD OF TIME BRAZILIANS
WILL SEE ESPECIALLY IN THE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED
STATES AND IMPORTANT POINT IS
STABILITY IN THE WAY TO DRIVE
THEIR OWN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY
FORWARD SO I THINK WE'RE IN A
VERY GOOD PLACE.
THAT IS GOOD TO HEAR.
POSITIVE NEWS FROM SOMEWHERE.
LAST WORDS?
BRAZIL GETS UNDER YOUR SKIN.
IN MY DAY IN THE 60s AND 70s
THERE WERE A BUNCH OF
BRAZILIANS.
MANY SERVED IN ANOTHER BIG
COUNTRY, I WAS ASPIRING TO
SERVE IN THE SOVIET UNION AS
WELL.
THE COUNTRY IS BIG, IT IS
VIGOROUS.
YOU'VE GOT TO LOVE THE
BRAZILIANS.
THEY VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
I SERVED IN THE NORTH.
IT WAS A KIND OF -- IT WAS A
GENTEEL SOCIETY.
PEOPLE WERE NICE, PEOPLE WERE
KIND, PEOPLE WENT OUT OF THE
WAY TO DO THINGS FOR YOU EVEN
IN DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES.
IT GETS UNDER YOUR SKIN.
I TRIED TO BE OPTIMISTIC.
IT GETS UNDER MY SKIN WHEN I
SEE CORRUPTION COMING.
THAT IS NOT GOING TO HELP
BRAZIL BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY.
IT DIMINISHED IT SOMEWHAT IN
THE EYES OF THE WORLD.
BRAZIL IS ACTIVE, HAS A ROLE TO
PLAY IN THE REGION AND
INTERNATIONALLY.
REMEMBER ONE THING, BRAZILIANS
HAVE BEEN ACTIVE, THEY HAVE
BEEN VERY ACTIVE IN THE
INTERNATIONAL CIVIL SERVICE.
MANY OF THEM SERVED AS
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE
SECRETARY-GENERAL.
AND LOST THEIR LIVES.
WE HAD AN EXAMPLE OF THAT
KIND.
IT IS A BIG, ACTIVE COUNTRY AND
I THINK IT IS SPECIAL.
I HOPE THINGS WORK WELL.
I HOPE BOLSONARO CAST ASIDE THE
THINGS HE SAID DURING THE
CAMPAIGN AND TRIES TO
ACCOMPLISH SOMETHING.
I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF HUMAN
CAPITAL AND NATURAL RESOURCES
IN BRAZIL THAT WILL ALLOW IT TO
BE A MORE OUTSTANDING COUNTRY
AND LEADER IN INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS.
OKAY.
WHERE ARE WE?
FROM MUSIC.
WAIT --
BY THE WAY, THE FIRST TRIP
PRESIDENT CARDOZA MADE TO THE
UNITED STATES AFTER HE WAS
ELECTED, TONTO BEEN HAD DIED OF
FAILURE OF HIS LIVER.
NATIONAL ICON.
PEOPLE ALL OVER BRAZIL.
THE SAME HAPPENED WITH RACE CAR
DRIVERS.
THEY HAVE HUGE DEMONSTRATIONS,
KILLED IN CRASHES AND REALLY
ATTACHED WITH THESE ICONS.
PELE AND OTHER FAMOUS
FOOTBALL STARS, THE THING I AM
STRUCK WITH IS A LOT OF
DIPLOMATS WHO SERVE IN BRAZIL
KEEP COMING BACK.
THERE IS SOMETHING THAT KEEPS
ATTRACTING THEM TO OUR SERVICE
IN BRAZIL.
THE OTHER PART OF IT IS I AM
HOPING THAT THROUGH THIS
PODCAST THAT WE ARE DOING NOT
ONLY DO WE GET A BETTER
APPRECIATION FOR WHAT DIPLOMATS
DO, IN THESE KINDS OF EPISODES,
WERE ABLE TO LOOK AT WHAT OTHER
COUNTRIES GO THROUGH AND BORROW
THE BEST THE WORKS AS OPPOSED
TO THINKING WE HAVE ALL THE
ANSWERS.
I DON'T HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS
AND THERE ARE THINGS THAT HAVE
BEEN TRIED AND FAILED AND
THINGS THE TRIED AND WORKED
LIKE FAMILIA AND OTHER THINGS
THAT MAYBE ARE THE ANSWER TO A
LOT OF THE KIND OF DEBATES WE
HAVE IN THE UNITED STATES THAT
NEVER SEEM TO GET BEYOND THE
CAPITALISM VERSUS SOCIALISM IN
TERMS OF THE WAGE GAP IN THE
UNITED STATES THAT SEEMS TO BE
GROWING ON AN HOURLY BASIS.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT BRAZIL.
IT WAS AN INTERESTING EPISODE
FOR ALL OF US.
WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR MUSIC?
A GIRL FROM UP ANYMORE.
I WILL SING IT WITH YOU.
HOW DOES IT START?
WITHOUT MUSIC?
WE WILL DO A DUET.
IS A LOADED?
WHAT ARE WE DOING?
OKAY.
[LAUGHTER]
THAT IS WHY WE HAVE YOU.
[SPEAKING SPANISH]
THAT IS SO BEAUTIFUL.
THIS IS A FIRST, THIS IS A
PODCAST EPISODE THAT HAS MEL
LEVITSKY SINGING AMONG HIS
OTHER TALENTS.
IS THERE ANYTHING YOU WANT TO
SING?
MEL HAS SAID IT ALL.
THANK YOU FOR COMING.
THANK YOU ALL.
[APPLAUSE]