Javed Ali, Ford School professor and former and former senior official at the National Intelligence Council, National Counterterrorism Center, and National Security Council, rapidly respond to the shifting situations in the Middle East this week. Here are his insights.
"What are the potential ways wider conflict could be averted?" BBC, October 4, 2024 - Ali commented on what might happen next in the Middle East. He said,"I am very pessimistic about the prospects of de-escalation… most likely the perception within the Israel Defence Forces and at the political level within Netanayhu's war cabinet is that they have the momentum. In warfare, when one side believes it has the momentum against its adversary, you don't want to give it up, because you can continue to put pressure on your enemy."
"Does Israel-Iran hostilities spell all-out war in the Middle east?" Cape Talk (South Africa), October 3, 2024 - talking with John Maytham on his podcast Afternoon Drive, Ali discussed the state of hostilities in the Middle East. He said, "we are already witnessing escalation" in the region, in terms of how far up the escalatory ladder we are Ali said "were sort of on the middle rung of that ladder," and we will continue to see the climb up that ladder. He said he does not see "the prospects for deescalation, ceasefire, diplomacy working at all right now."
"Israel eyeing attack on Iran's nuclear sites" Fox News, October 3, 2024 - Ali said, "they have carried through on all those warnings and threats" so an Israeli response to Iran's attack is likely imminent and he said "a lot of things are most likely on the table for Israel to select as targets." He believes it is possible they may attack Iran's nuclear sites, something president Joe Biden has said he will not support.
"The Middle East is more dangerous & volatile now than October 2023" KCBS, October 2, 2024 - "Things are actually now much more dangerous much more volatile much more complex" than they were on October 7th 2023 according to Ali. Talking on the KCBS radio, Ali said that Iran's leaders "intended for those attacks to hit their targets" even though they were shot down, and that a response is likely to be forthcoming from Israel.
"Israel vows retaliation after Iran launches massive missile assault" ABC News, October 2, 2024 - Ali "they are probably already putting in motion, or have put in motion already, some sort of terrorist attack outside of the region, and this is the threat that Hezbollah poses that Hamas doesn't." He said "Hezbollah probably more than any of the other groups in the axis of resistance, can punch back outside the region."
"Iran’s strikes on Israel are the latest sign that the conflict in the Middle East is spiraling, presenting rising global security threats" The Conversation, October 1, 2024 - Ali wrote an essay on the state of the conflicts between Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas. He said, "The Middle East is in much more volatile situation than it was even a year ago. This conflict has expanded far outside of fighting primarily between Israel and Hamas."
He explained why Iran fired missiles at Israel, by saying "Iran has said it fired the missiles into Israel as retaliation for attacks on Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military." Ali described some of the history of Hezbollah, noting "The relationships between these Iranian experts and Lebanese militants during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war led to the formation of Hezbollah as a small, clandestine group in 1982."
Ali also explained Hezbollah's more extensive global network, saying "Hezbollah has a long history of regional and global terrorism."
For a more in depth explanation of the situation, read his full essay here.
"Iran launches retaliatory strikes on Israel" ABC News, October 1, 2024 - "this is to a degree a replay of what happened in April but also with a different inventory of weapons," said Ali about the attack Iran launched against Israel. However he said "it will be different going forward" because "what we are seeing unfolding in front of our eyes is the climb up the escalatory ladder by Israel and Iran."
"Iran prepares ballistic missile launch" ABC News, October 1, 2024 - As Iran planned to launch ballistic missiles against Israel, Ali commented on the role the US might have in this situaiton by saying "the us would get involved with trying to intercept as many of those weapons to the extent it can working with other partners." He also said "I have suspected for the last week that we would see something like this form Iran."
