Top row (from left to right): Jenna Bednar, Charlotte Cavaillé, Jonathan Hanson. Bottom row (from left to right): Mara Ostfeld, Ambassador Susan D. Page, Betsey Stevenson
In the days following the 2024 elections, we sought insights from Ford School faculty members: How did we arrive at this point? And where do we go from here?
>>Jenna Bednar, professor of political science and public policy: “The election raised the significance of the states in domestic policy-making. With the high likelihood of unified government in Washington, President Trump should be able to implement much of his agenda. While proposals like "mass deportation" will encounter legal challenges, others will be successful, like the rollback of many of the EPA's regulations or the Biden infrastructure development goals. States will need to choose whether they will carry forward with an environmental agenda and building plan that Washington abandons.
States may go further: to defend democracy itself. The immediate pushbacks from Governors Newsom and Pritzker might be chalked up to policy disputes or set ups for 2028 presidential runs. But there's another angle that is really important. Some have suggested that the United States is losing its status as the leader of the free world, as the torchbearer for democracy---and that possibly the European nation-states had a real opportunity now to pick up democracy's torch. The US states might also claim that role. Should the new administration take actions that threaten democracy, the states may rise up, sounding a cry of alarm, to defend our democratic foundation."
>>Charlotte Cavaillé, assistant professor of public policy: “Europe’s investment in its own defense is up since Trump’s 2016 victory, but spending efforts are not equally shared. Poland and Finland, which border Russia, have nearly doubled their defense spending. In contrast, France and Germany have yet to meet the 2% GDP NATO target. Will a second Trump victory be enough to get everyone on board and bring an end to the 'era of geopolitical outsourcing'? For Ukraine and NATO’s sake, I hope so. In the U.S., Trump’s foreign policy positions are becoming mainstream; there is no going back to the pre-Trump status quo.”
>>Jonathan Hanson, political scientist and teaching professor: “Incumbents have performed poorly worldwide in this post-pandemic, inflationary period. Even though the U.S. brought inflation back under control faster than most other nations, and real wages are growing, Harris did not have a strong economic message to overcome frustration with higher prices. Turnout in key Democratic strongholds dropped, and Trump attracted slightly more support than he did in 2020. It was a relatively small shift of votes with dramatic consequences in a nation that remains highly polarized.”
>>Mara Ostfeld, associate research professor: "The 2024 election outcome was the result of two primary shifts. The first is the shift in the composition of the electorate. There are numerous data points that illustrate that turnout among Americans affiliated with the Democratic party was down quite a bit this year. The second shift is in the composition of the votes cast. Younger voters, voters with fewer years of formal education, and voters who identified as Latino, Asian American, and Middle Eastern and North African American were all more likely to support the Republican presidential candidate than they have in past elections. Yet while we saw support for the Republican candidate increase among many groups, support for many extreme policies associated with his campaign was actually quite low. Despite a majority of Americans voting for Trump, the large majority of Americans support legal access to abortions, and support a legal pathway to citizenship for American residents without legal authorization to remain in the U.S. As far as we can tell right now, these results were heavily driven by frustrations with the state of the economy - and especially how it is working for less economically secure Americans."
>>Ambassador Susan D. Page, professor of practice and director of the Weiser Diplomacy Center: "The elections are over and the ballots (almost) all counted, giving Donald J. Trump's Republican Party what appears to be a full sweep of the Presidency and both houses of Congress. Despite "conventional" pollsters' and pundits' predictions of a presidential "nail biter," with election results likely to be unknown for several days after polls closed, most viewers knew the likely outcome of the presidential election before they went to sleep in the early hours of November 6, 2024.
The recriminations came in fast and biting in a rush to point fingers of blame for the defeat of Vice President Harris. Without repeating the numerous possible fault lines and the uniqueness of this particular Democratic presidential nomination process and timeline, I urge the Democratic Party writ large to take the time to listen and hear what the people—not the consultants or party faithful—are saying about their feelings and fears, without the overlay of intellectual arrogance. While the Democratic Party lost the Presidential election, re-focusing also on state and local governance could help the Democrats to begin to understand the WHYs of people's votes without judgment. Finally, both parties (dare I say, all political parties?) should look beyond the American context and this particular election cycle and analyze shrewdly electoral trends globally. Given our increasingly interconnected world and our multiethnic country, America is not an island."
>>Betsey Stevenson, professor of public policy and economics: "Around the globe, voters have turned up at the polls ready to punish incumbent politicians for the inflation that occurred following the pandemic. In nearly every country a similar playbook was followed: hand out cash to support families even as supply was severely curtailed. When demand is buoyed and supply is reduced, inflation inevitably follows. And while history may show that this playbook led to long-term gains in terms of economic growth and higher overall employment, it is clear that voters were angry about increasing prices and are punishing incumbent politicians the world over. The challenge for President Trump is that the policies he has proposed–deporting immigrants and raising tariffs–will lead to higher inflation. President Trump will have to trade off his goal of reshaping the US economy in the long run with the immediate effects–rising prices–of those goals. And he will not have much time, as rising prices will likely cause voters to turn back to Democrats in the midterm elections."
Bednar's research combines positive political theory and systems theory to analyze how institutions remain effective in complex environments. She has contributed to the scholarly inquiry of the design of federalism; theoretical and experimental work on cultural evolution and institutional performance; and applied realms such as campaign contributions, transboundary water systems, and environmental sustainability.
Cavaillé examines the dynamics of popular attitudes towards redistributive social policies at a time of rising inequality, high fiscal stress, and high levels of immigration. She also studies the relationship between immigration, the welfare state, and the rise of populism. Cavaillé received her PhD in government and social policy from Harvard University in 2014.
MPP/MPA Program Director; Lecturer in Statistics for Public Policy
Hanson is a specialist in comparative political economy and political development. He examines the ways that political institutions affect economic performance and development. In his recent projects, he has explored how to measure state capacity, the roles of democracy and state capacity for improving human development, and why authoritarian regimes vary significantly in economic and social outcomes. A former congressional aide, he has been active in political campaigns.
Research Associate Professor, Public Policy, Gerald R Ford School of Public Policy and Faculty Associate, Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research
Professor of Practice in International Diplomacy at the University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, and Professor from Practice at the University of Michigan's Law School. Director; Weiser Diplomacy Center
Page applies her vast foreign policy experience to the Weiser Diplomacy Center. She has served the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the United Nations, and non-governmental organizations in senior roles for decades, across East, Central, and Southern Africa, and in Haiti and Nepal. Page was the first U.S. ambassador to the Republic of South Sudan and served as Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations in Haiti.
Stevenson is a labor economist who publishes widely about the labor market and the impact of public policies on outcomes both in the labor market and for families. Her research explores women's labor market experiences, the economic forces shaping the modern family, and how these experiences and forces influence each other. She served as the chief economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from 2010 to 2011, participating as the secretary's deputy to the White House economic team.
