Political hurdles in the U.S. have prevented a national carbon tax or cap-and-trade-system, but would the American public support tariffs linked to climate policy?
University of Michigan political scientist Barry Rabe, in collaboration with Chris Borick from Muhlenberg College, explores American attitudes towards linking trade policy with climate performance in their Brookings-published analysis “American views on linking trade policy with climate performance.” Leveraging data from the National Surveys on Energy and Environment (NSEE), they investigate whether the American public supports tariffs on imports from countries with higher greenhouse gas emissions.
Rabe discusses how such tariffs might work, potentially based on the carbon price or emission records of exporting nations and paid by importers upon arrival in the U.S., with most costs likely passed along to consumers. Current legislation, he notes, includes proposals for establishing a federal system to measure carbon emissions across various industries and trade partners, imposing carbon tariffs on imports, or combining these tariffs with a domestic carbon price.
Significantly, the summer 2024 NSEE points to strong American public support for these tariffs. Conducted by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, the survey of 715 adults shows bipartisan backing (68%) for imposing tariffs on high-emission imported goods, despite potential increases in consumer prices. This level of support contrasts with the lower support historically shown for domestic carbon pricing mechanisms like carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.
The survey also reveals a strong public inclination towards upholding international trade agreements (79%) and prioritizing greenhouse gas reductions in trade negotiations (78%). These findings reflect a growing public alignment with integrating climate considerations into trade policies.
A notable challenge remains the lack of a common metric for assessing climate performance, which complicates the implementation of carbon tariffs. Rabe highlights that much economic analysis presumes national carbon prices as a central measure but acknowledges the difficulty due to the absence of standardized assessment criteria.
Rabe references a 2023 Niskanen Center study of emission patterns across 19 major industrial sectors. The study indicates that while the U.S. performs better in carbon emissions compared to countries like China, India, and Russia, it lags behind the EU, Japan, and the UK and is closer to nations like Canada, Mexico, and South Korea.
Despite NSEE findings showing strong support for tariffs on emissions-heavy imports, Americans tend to overestimate the cleanliness of U.S. manufacturing relative to countries like China and the EU.
Rabe and Borick's analysis highlights bipartisan support for using trade policy to address global emissions, showing potential for new legislative efforts.
Read the full analysis at Brookings.
